Memories and developments

Tags

Britain, Iran, Middle East, NATO, Politics, Russia, Syria, Trump, Turkey, World

In the last few weeks with the zigzags of international situations and the horrible nightmare circus of the Trump NO Foreign Policy, I am concerned for the safety of us all and for the stability of the World.

On my last visit to Damascus back in around 2002 just before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, I was surprise to see the large number of Iranian visitors, business people and families living in neighbourhoods of Damascus a city before the Civil War of 2 million people. The official explanation was Shia Holy Sites which brought people to visit Syria. In the Southern Suburb of Damascus is the tomb and Mosque of Sayidda Zeinab daughter of Ali and grand daughter of the Prophet Mohammed. The Mosque in Persian Style was built in the 1990’s on the site of a much older mosque. The Iranian Embassy was also the next door neighbour of the Canadian Embassy in Damascus on Fayez Mansour.

The Assad Regime in Syria is allied with Iran for various complex political and military reasons and Iran is an important supporter of Hezbollah ( the Party of God) in Lebanon and these alliances are maintained to keep a foothold in Lebanon keeping the country unstable and ensuring the on-going influence of Syria in Lebanon. Iran can also maintain pressure on Israel with the help of its proxy Hezbollah.

Since the invasion of Iraq by the USA in 2003 and the final overthrow of the Regime of Saddam Hussein, Iran has moved into Iraq on the pretext of helping the Shia majority at the expense of the Sunni minority. It also helps control politics in Iraq and prevents the USA from dominating the region and helps Russia play a large role. Something Russia has been wanting to do since the 1930’s but was unable to do because of British and American interest in the area. Britain is now gone and the USA are in a weaken position.

Enters Trump and his simpleton politics of I know it all school of thought, who decided to abandon the Kurds who counted on the USA as an ally seeking protection from Turkey, Iran and Russia. Confirming the old belief that you really cannot depend on the USA as an Ally. Russia is consolidating its position in the region, having cultivated President Erdogan of Turkey by selling him armaments despite the fact that Turkey is still a member of NATO. Russia is undermining NATO and Trump in London said that he does not feel compelled to uphold article 5 of the Alliance of mutual assistance. This sends a strong message to Russia and China who understand that they can make a move with little fear of USA intervention.

Trump then makes threats against Turkey of sanctions thinking that President Erdogan will give in, which is unlikely given his own posturing at home and new found friends in Russia and China. This point escapes Trump completely and his arrogant attitude at the NATO Anniversary in London shows how much he is out of it, we also saw how the world thinks little of him and the USA.  His leaving early in a huff or calling President Macron and Prime Minister Trudeau names like a school child did little to enhance his profile.

The Civil War in Syria will come to an end with Russia and Iran as the winners, the USA will be out and the Kurds will be reduced once again to living on the margins, because they backed the USA.

What sort of Syria will we have in the future, not a democratic one, more like an enhanced dictatorship with more grinding poverty, a powerful Russia with naval bases in the port of Latakia, something Russia has been wanting for more than a century. Iran will also get access to the Mediterranean and come to dominate the region, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. This puts even more pressure on Israel and pushes out Saudi interests in the entire region, Iran is the winner.  With Trump’s ever changing reasoning and attitudes, 60 years of complicated US diplomacy is gone. It leaves little Jordan alone with Israel to fend for themselves.

With Israel at the moment in a state of turmoil as Premier Netanyahu facing criminal prosecution for corruption, no clear winner after 2 back to back election. Trump may think he can just send in the Marines to clear things up, but it no longer works that way, this is not the 1940’s. The USA is running out of options but hey The Donald can’t seem to grasp this reality.

War with Russia is not possible, because Nuclear Weapons. A conflict with Iran is also not feasible, Russia again would certainly intervene on the side of Iran. Sanctions against Turkey will not work either and only push the Turks into the Russian camp further and undermine NATO on its Southern flank.

China has been moving for the last 20 years to displace the USA commercially in Africa, South America and Asia. China is having economic problems due to Trump’s tariffs but there is a limit to such tariffs, Stock Markets reflect the unease and worry of a trade war with China. Trump knows he is limited in what he can do without damaging the USA economy.  What has been lost in terms of  US Foreign Policy and influence in the World will not bounce back, it is simply too late.

Looks like the whole impeachment process is far to slow and uncertain and then the 2020 election another uncertainty.  No it does not look good at all.

I voted today

Tags

Canada., Election, Federal, hate, nonsense, scheer

Well today I did my duty as a Citizen and voted in our National Federal Election. It is the first day of voting by anticipation, this Thanksgiving weekend people can vote from 9am to 9 pm at polling stations. It’s easy and very well organized, it took all of 2 minutes. I had my voting card and one piece of ID, got my ballot, marked it and in the box it goes. No fancy machines, just a pencil and a piece of paper. Like most Canadians I have heard enough and my mind was made up.

I did not want to wait until 21 October which is the actual voting day, I’ve had enough of having to listen to lies and more lies from Conservative politicians and their leader Andrew Scheer. Whose father was a draft dodger during the Vietnam War, making Andrew an American Citizen, registered for the US Army reservist and travelling on a US passport. Something he hid from Canadians until just a few days ago. He also lied on his resume, he does not have a university diploma from Regina, and he was a gofer in an insurance company not a broker. He also hired Trump strategists to work on his campaign and receives funds from the GOP. So Andrew Scheer who wants to be Prime Minister of Canada is the Manchurian Candidate.

This election has 6 party leaders, though in reality only 2 really matter since only a liberal or a Conservative can actually get enough seats to form a government. The other parties will not get many seats. The Greens need 12 seats to be an official party, the NDP will likely be devastated in this election and may loose official party status, the Bloc only has candidates in Quebec and only represent that Province and the extreme right wing party of Maxime Bernier, the so called People’s Party will probably not have more than 1 seat in our House of Commons at 338 members.

We have had 4 so called debates, the ones in English a shouting match looking more like a food fight at a high school cafeteria with 5 moderators who did nothing but let the slug fest go on. The debate in French was far better and the moderator effective in controlling the leaders, the Media preferred the French version and its format and questions.

The big issues during the campaign were not discussed and the more offensive Conservative Premiers like Doug Ford of Ontario disappeared. While Jason Kenney of Alberta is on the one hand campaigning for the Conservative but at the same time challenging their leader Andrew Scheer.

The owners of Conservative papers, Postmedia, Sun, Globe and Mail and television Global and CTV were openly hostile to the Prime Minister promoting the Alt-right agenda, anti-immigration sentiment, bigotry, racism and violence against anyone who is not a conservative.

In other words our election process and the campaign have become like those South of the border. It is unfortunate but it also shows that Civic Illiteracy is well and alive and people do not know nor understand important issues. Are quick to blame to Government for what does not work in their personal lives. These negative feelings are difficult to explain given that the Economy is growing rapidly, unemployment is the lowest in 40 yrs, child poverty is the lowest it has ever been, etc..

The Alt-right and other hate groups have congregated around Andrew Scheer and his party, lawn signs for Conservative candidate stand next to signs advocating killing opponents. This was bound to happen here when you look at the Trumpian politics south of us. Conservatives in Canada admire Trump and wish we had the same white Evangelical politics. Andrew Scheer is their answer in this election. No it is not the genteel Canada we once knew.

What we do know for certain, it will be a minority government and this can give us some hope to avoid extreme politics.

Exciting times

Tags

Green, Legislature, MMP, PEI

We are going into Easter Weekend and so far 36% have voted in this Provincial election on Prince Edward Island out of a possible 100,000 voters. The advance polling days are very popular here.  This election we are voting to elect Members of the Provincial Legislature and we are also voting to change the way we vote hopefully adopting a system which is used in 90 countries around the World, called Mix Member Proportional or MMP for short. The MMP system is one the current government wants defeated but due to public pressure was forced into offering a referendum to settle the matter. We did have a non binding Plebiscite 15 months ago the MMP idea won then but the Premier of PEI, Wade MacLaughlan refused to recognized the results. He was under pressure from Ottawa, PM Trudeau did not want the results acknowledged. Richard Brown a Minister of the PEI government gave protesters the bird and another minister Jordan Brown (not related) openly laughed at protesters. This infuriated the average voters, people on PEI like politicians to be polite and courteous, though politics on the Island is a blood sport.

MMP in short gives seats based on the proportion of votes a party gets during an election.  If a party gets 30% of the votes cast then it would get 30% of the seats, no more. This is not what is happening now. The last Provincial Election saw results which favoured the Liberal Party in a disproportionate way. With only 36% of the votes, you get 100% of the power. Also the rural areas are not well represented if compared to the Charlottetown the Capital and other towns like Summerside. The MMP would correct that giving rural areas far more representation in the Legislature.

The old electoral system needs to change because it is very unfair to electors and is a relic of the old Colonial past under British rule favouring the Elites when women and the common man did not have a vote. Only the Landowners voted and distributed power amongst themselves.

As of Noon on 18 April the latest poll shows a Majority Green Party, an opposition composed of the Conservative Party and the Liberals might get some or no seats. This trend has maintained itself for 3 months now in every poll.  I can’t wait for Tuesday 23 April Election Day. PEI stands to make Canadian History by electing the first Greeen Party into Government and if the MMP is adopted we would be the first in Canada. It would send a serious message to Prime Minister Trudeau who had promised more than 1025 times in speeches to instaure such a system only to abandon the idea abruptly two years ago.

 Some of the people I work with at the Green Party. 

 

Vacations

Tags

China, institutions, Law, Rule of Law, Russia, Trump, USA

So we are scheduled to leave for Portugal and spend about 10 days there, it will be a pleasant change all around. We have never been and I heard plenty of good things about the country.  We are also thinking of going to the Galapagos Island next year with friends, that also will be a first.

In the meantime I am worried about the USA and how your system of government is unraveling, no longer the example of democracy and in the firm grip of a President who is keen on ignoring the rules of your Constitution. The bizarre incident with the CNN reporter and his being banned because the President did not like the question. The new threats made by Trump on the new majority Democrat Congress, it will be war if they look into his finances and his family holdings. I think that he has now admitted to wrongdoing by simply making this threat, he is very obviously worried Congress will find out the truth.  This should be an incentive for Congress to act quickly. The firing of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and his replacement by his Chief of Staff who penned an opinion this past Summer calling into question the legitimacy of Courts and the Supreme Court in particular. This new fellow could also limit the Mueller investigation and even refuse to publish the findings. This new Attorney General sounds like someone who again would do just about anything to ensure Trump stays in power no matter what happens. This is worrisome for any country with institutions and the principle of Law and Order.

Too many countries like China, Russia, North Korea control the Courts to ensure that the leadership can persecute its perceived enemies and hand down judgements it likes. If the USA goes down this road then all pretence of being a democracy founded on the principle of the rule of Law is gone and you are nothing more than a tin pot republic. It could happen in the USA because no one wants to believe that it could. This is what happened in Germany in 1933 no one believed that the parliament (Reichstag) and the Courts would allow Chancellor Hitler to take over, after all Germany was a country founded on the rule of Law, and in one night it was all gone.

Hopefully President Trump can be removed from Office before it is too late. Hopefully Congress will take charge. It shows how checks and balances is a fragile thing and not fail proof.

Then there is China, in the last few months dangerous close encounters between the Chinese Navy and the USA Navy have taken place in disputed areas at sea where China now claims total control. Would Trump declare war on China if a USA Naval ship was rammed or attacked or sunk? It could very well happen if Trump becomes desperate to cling to power.

What about Trump’s promise to do away with the Nuclear Treaty with Russia, this is pure madness and even Putin is worried, all of it moves to destabilize the world and push us towards war or the destruction of institutions in the USA.  I cannot remember any President being so callous.

All the signals are there, something needs to give to avoid a disaster. Canadians are dismayed and worried.

 

On a rainy day

Tags

beijing, China, congress, Music

Today was a windy and rainy day typical of Autumn on PEI. I had a few things to do like going to the garage to get my oil changed and get the tire pressure checked. Do a bit of work on the campaign which is drawing to a close but much remains to be done. I found this video on YouTube, recorded by CCTV (Central China TV) it shows the dawn raising of the Chinese flag ceremony of on 1 January 2018 on Gate of Heavenly Peace Square or Tian An Men Square which is more rectangular.

There cannot be a more symbolic square in China, fronted by the outer gates of the Forbidden City with its 3 archways, the central one being higher than the other two and reserved exclusively for the Emperor, on the left side of the square is the National museum whose vocation has been changing in the last 20 years and on the right side the Great Hall of the People used for the Chinese People’s Congress and for State functions. At the Southern end of the square is another gate Qian Men (Front Southern Gate), since 2006 the City of Beijing has re-built completely the area in what it must have been liked 100 years ago under the Imperial regime with traditional architecture, opera theatres and old traditional shops, somewhat like Chinese Disneyland. In the middle of the Square is Mao Tse Tung Mausoleum which is only open a couple of days a year and is in need of restoration as it appears frozen in time since his death in 1976.

Every day the flag is raised on Tiananmen Square but New Year’s Day is seen as auspicious. While serving in China, I got to see quite a few of these ceremonies. The one which remains with me is the day I went to the People’s Congress meeting in the Great Hall of the People. Our Embassy was in the area of Dongzhimen Wai (East Straight Gate) in the Chao Yang district, I remember being taken down the third ring road during the time the People’s Congress was sitting in March. The government of China would invite Embassies to send observers.  All along the way two lanes of the four lane ring road were reserved exclusively for official cars and a police officer in full uniform was posted every 100 meters, you need a lot of manpower to do that. Our car then turned unto the avenue of Eternal Peace which leads to Tiananmen Square. Again an honour guard all along the route over several kilometres. Upon entering the square gigantic displays of flowers, honour guards to direct the official cars to the main door of the Great Hall of the People, large red carpets climbing the stairs.  Once inside all the walls are in white marble but in keeping with the Soviet Style of architecture it is all over sized dwarfing people. The walls also had large tapestry showing scenes of happy workers receiving bouquets of flowers from happy children and peasants. Other tapestries had patriotic scenes or nature scene rendered in socialist realist style, high in colour.

1920 Photo of Tiananmen Square, the Forbidden City is in the background and the gate in the foreground was demolished in 1957 when the square was remodelled as we see it today.

 

In the Great Hall itself where the sessions took place thousands of delegates sat in a large theatre facing the stage where the Head of State, Premier and Ministers including other senior officials of the Chinese ruling bureau sat, each with his or her cup of tea, attendants bring tea continuously. On the large balcony above a 100 piece military orchestra would play patriotic music when signalled to do so. We sat at one end of the balcony observing the ritual of voting on laws or listening to speeches. It was all choreographed. The 56 ethnic minorities living in the People’s Republic of China are also represented in the Assembly and each one is made to wear its ethnic costume so as not to confuse them with the dominant Han Chinese delegates in dark business suits.

The day we attended the Congress a law was passed forbidding Taiwan from seceding from the motherland. Another signal that China is serious about its one China policy. I remember watching the vote, it went like this; In favour 2998 and 2 abstentions, I always wondered who abstained. However another vote was on accepting the final report from the Supreme Court of China on its activities for the year. In this case the vote went this way; 2875 in favour, 110 against and 15 abstentions. After each vote the military band would play. It was all very exciting to see.

 

Canada G7

Tags

Canada., Chabrier, G7, Music, Politics, threath, USA, World

Now that Canada has been declared a National Security Threat to the USA by none other than Prez Trump, let us look at others who have been declared such in the past by other Presidents and see if Canada fits in with this description.

Measures taken to ensure U.S. national security include:

• Using diplomacy to rally allies and isolate threats.
• Marshaling economic power to elicit cooperation.
• Maintaining effective armed forces.
• Implementing civil defense and emergency preparedness policies (including anti-terrorism legislation)
• Ensuring the resilience and redundancy of critical infrastructure.
• Using intelligence services to detect and defeat or avoid threats and espionage, and to protect classified information.
• Tasking counterintelligence services or secret police to protect the nation from internal threats.

I am sure being a retired diplomat that President Trump has already directed the US Government to take such action against Canada, it goes well beyond tariffs on steel and aluminium.

As the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael G. Mullen, was fond of saying, US national debt has become perhaps our top national security threat. The United States has been running trillion-dollar deficits, resulting in a huge explosion in the country’s indebtedness. Publicly held debt now equals 70% of gross domestic product, a threshold many economists consider significant and highly worrisome. Making matters worse, half of our current deficit financing is being provided by foreigners.

Others threats to the security of the USA are:  unstable Middle-East with no peace in sight, Climate change, Cyber terrorism, President Putin, the energy future, South Asia (Afghanistan and Pakistan), the next space challenge, unstable Africa in the face of epidemics like Ebola. With President Trump’s unpredictable behaviour he may by himself create instability for the USA and create new unnecessary crisis.

This weekend in Charlevoix, Quebec the G7 is meeting and the attitude and tweeting of President Trump and his early departure from the conference simply isolates the USA in the world and angers is most trusted and long term allies. Prime Minister Trudeau is correct is stating that the declaration of Trump is illogical and insulting for Canadians. But the President does not seem to care and believes he can bully Canada and other nations. We will have to bow to his demands, however now Canadians are more united than ever in the face of this aggression by the American administration.

So I chose to listen to music instead by Emmanuel Chabrier 1841-1894. When confronted by fools take the high road, this is what I am doing.