Every new Year it never fails

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conflict, Iran, Middle East, Persia, war

Usually a few days before the New Year I always wonder what the new year will bring for me personally and for us as a family and then for Canada and the world. It seems that if our domestic life continues apace and no great event changes our lives beyond what is to be normally expected, the situation in the world is a vastly different matter.

I have come to expect some kind of disaster, natural, man made or other. In 1990 while in the Middle East, I and my colleagues knew was imminent with Iraq for invading Kuwait and the oil fields. So that Christmas in Cairo, my boss at the time told me to take my little puppy Bundnie with me to Canada because I might not be able to return and it was best not to leave her behind. I did return in the New Year but Bundnie was safe at home in Canada. The first Gulf war was short really, the Iraqi army was not professional and ill equipped for any war against a Western army. Other years brought other terrible events. So why would 2020 be any different.

The Middle East has been since 1914 a huge trouble spot and a play ground for the great powers, Britain, France, USA, Russia and now China. The people of the region do not count for much in the final analysis. Much racism and bigotry at play. Trump’s decision is one of a man who has NO understanding of the world and history or international commitments for that matter. His mistake has given Iran a victory today.

The Iraqi Parliament today has voted to oust all USA troops from Iraq. The domino effect is that the NATO mission to train Iraqi soldiers is at an end, they too will have to leave. Iran becomes de facto the only power to control the militias and political life in Iraq.

All NATO operations against ISIS are also at an end. ISIS will probably make the calculation of now attacking only Western forces, siding with Iran because it is convenient for them. Russia is also winning with the USA out of the way. Iran is also re-starting its enrichment of Uranium program.

The assassination of Qassim Suleimani was a terrible mistake and it is difficult to understand how the State Dept, The National Security Council, experts and advisors could not point out the obvious to Pres. Trump. Suleimani was similar to Iran killing the US Secretary of State or the Chief of the Defense Staff. It reminds me of a story involving the Duke of Wellington at the battle of Waterloo. Prior to the battle as was custom at the time generals would go up and down the line to harangue soldiers prior to the battle.

Wellington did it and so did Napoleon on his white horse. An Officer pointed out to the Duke that it would be very easy to simply shoot Napoleon prior to the battle and that would be the end of that, Wellington said NO, we do not do that, it would be beyond the pale and contrary to the rules of engagement. If Napoleon dies during the battle fine but not prior to hostilities.

The killing of Suleimani is contrary to International Law, since there was no declared war between Iran and the USA. Despite the media depicting him as a terrorist etc. still no previous president or anyone else suggested killing him out right. Now we see the result, Iran is now at war with the USA. The Americans are loosing ground and outside of the UK it is very unlikely that any other ally including Canada will want to get involved in an un-winnable war.

Iran is not Libya or Syria or Iraq, it is a power in the region and has the capacity to wage a war, its soldiers are committed to a cause they believe in, can’t say the same for a Western soldier who may not see the point of fighting a war far from home for what goal exactly and for a President who has been impeached. Vietnam was lost because the Vietcong believe in what they were fighting for, not so on the American side.

Iran is a country in Western Asia. With 82 million inhabitants, Iran is the world’s 18th most populous country. Its territory spans 1,648,195 km², making it the second largest country in the Middle East and the 17th largest in the world. An ancient culture, a highly educated population. What we see today is a failure of US diplomacy, since 1979 unable to resolve issues because the US administration has always treated Iran as an inferior. Then again Cuba comes to mind, another long standing failure of US diplomacy since 1959.

Now Pres. Trump wants to target specifically Iranian Cultural sites which are in most cases important to all humanity and some are protected under UNESCO. It seems that Trump wants to be declared a war criminal, what a distinction for a US President.

We live a very difficult moment in the world and none of this will make America great as Trump wishes, what a way to start the new year.

 

 

 

US Pronouncements

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Canada., climate change, Kelly Craft, US Embassy

The out going US Ambassador to Canada who got new assignment as US Ambassador to the UN in New-York had this to say about Canadians while she was on posting in Ottawa.

A letter to the Editor of the Ottawa Citizen, a reader answers her.

Ambassador Kelly Craft also said when asked about Climate change, ignoring consensus among scientists to suggest those who deny man-made global warming have equal credibility. I believed there are “good scientists on both sides” of the climate debate.

Happy to see her at the UN.

The 4th July

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4th July, America, independance, Kate Smith

To all my American friends and my family in the USA, Happy Independance Day and wishing you better days ahead. I chose this song by Kate Smith because it is a favourite of mine and it represents to me an America before the current difficult period. Canada’s diplomatic and trade relations are in a difficult bind and you have to wonder why really. We need to return to better days for the good of both Canada and the USA. My faith is in the American people to take action and change what is wrong now.

Wishing you all the best.

terrible mistake

Tags

Canada., Helsinki, NATO, Putin, Russia, Trump, UK

The Summit in Helsinki, Finland was a great victory for President Putin of Russia. Donald Trump made several mistakes which destroyed American Foreign Policy, weakened your credibility in the world and increase the influence of Russia.

It all went to hell at the NATO summit where Trump insulted his allies and then made demands because he views himself as the ruler of the world. The contribution of the USA to NATO is 67% but all other countries also contribute annually not only in money but in equipment and personnel, often far more than the USA.  Each contribution is not a due to the USA but to the organization as a whole. No one will increase its annual contribution to 4% as demanded by Trump, not even the USA will do that, total bluster with no substance. As for the contribution of 2% it is a goal for 2021 not today.

The trip to the UK was a total disaster, PM May must have wondered why she invited Trump who insulted her publicly, called her incompetent, suggested she sue the EU to get her way, that cannot be done, simple which tribunal would have jurisdiction to hear such a lawsuit. The EU like the UN is a club and each member must live by the agreement of membership. There is no one to be sued. Trump called for PM May to be replaced by the awful populist and incompetent Boris Johnson former Foreign Secretary who by supporting Brexit with lies has done Britain a grave disservice. Trump then went so far as to threaten PM May by saying that the USA would not sign Trade deals with Britain if they did not leave the EU. You do that to an old ally? Well Trump did it to Canada.

Then the incident with HM Queen Elizabeth II, Trump was 12 minutes late, an inexcusable delay when you are a guest and you make your host wait for no apparent reason. This was a provocation engineered by Trump to show that he was the great one. Having worked on such visits myself, I know that it is impossible to be late unless it was decided to be late. Then by standing in front of HM the Queen while she was escorting him at a review of the guard, Trump knew the Protocol, it had been explained to him, but he thought he could disregard it as he had in the past by pushing and shoving other Heads of State at international meeting because he believes he is more important. This lack of common decency and courtesy is what the World sees, this is what America looks like, this goes well beyond one man, he is the President of the USA and his behaviour is beyond reprehensible.

Helsinki was a terrible mistake, by agreeing to a one on one meeting with President Putin, Trump failed to realize that the Russians recorded the meeting and will use what ever he said at that meeting in the future against him as a bargaining chip. This is the oldest trick in the book of diplomacy, you never meet one on one, you always have others with you to take notes, its diplomacy 101. Trump cannot remember what he says and blabs uncontrollably, in all likelyhood he told Putin things he heard at the NATO summit or in conversation with other allies, not understanding that Putin the old spy master made a note of it all.

Putin got an incredible gift at this meeting, after 18 years of hard work, he got the President of the USA to declare that the world would be governed by the two great powers Russia and USA. Even in 1945 the world was divided between UK, France, USA, USSR. China is surely a greater economic power than Russia whose GDP is smaller than Canada. Trump said that there could be a good dialogue and understanding like in the days of the Cold War (1946-1989). I do not remember any such cooperation during those years, it was in fact a deadly game and enormous rivalry with the USSR (Russia). In 1962 a year Trump is old enough to remember, the world stood on the brink of complete nuclear war with the Cuban missile crisis provoked by the USSR.

Trump also said that he believed Putin instead of his own Intelligence agency, this declaration is an act of treason, Trump sided with the real existential threat to the USA and the Western World, Russia. Russia is not our friend and never was, the principle of the Rule of Law, Democracy and Free Elections are foreign concept for the Russians. The unlawful occupation of Crimea, and the aggression in the Donbass and Georgia, the full military support for the Assad Regime in Syria, and meddling in other parts of the World should tell us that Trump is wrong in supporting tyrants like Putin.

Trump now has sent a clear message to the allies of the USA that America cannot be trusted. It is impossible to know if America would come to the help of fellow NATO members in case of Russian aggression in the Baltic States or elsewhere in Europe. This is very dangerous for the peace of the world.

What we see now is that the famous talked about check and balances of the American system simply do not work, you have a rogue President who is not respecting the US Constitution he swore to uphold. The USA today is on a downward slide not only in prestige but in influence around the world. China and Russia are ascending and States like North Korea are profiting from this confusing lack of direction at the White House.

Will the November Elections change anything in the USA, its a gamble but like all gamble the results may be less than satisfactory, no one should bet on how the American public will vote.

From the New York Daily News 17 July 2018.