Well we have a new Parliament and Prime Minister Trudeau has won a third term, though again a minority Government. At dissolution the Liberals had 155 seats now they have 158 seats. The Official Opposition party the Conservative had 121 seats and are down to 119. Their leader Erin O’Toole wanted to win big or at least improve substantially his party seat count in the House. Will the Conservative party get rid of him now? They did it to Andrew Scheer his predecessor, gone within one month. The problem of the Conservative was to align themselves with fringe groups of anti-vaxxers, the far-right, using language associated closely to Trump and Erin made the supreme mistake of supporting the Premier of Alberta who is an incompetent fool with a terrible record on Covid19 response in Alberta. Erin could not see the writing on the wall. He even played the army card, asking retired senior officers to endorse him. That is a big no no in Canada, it is not done period. We are a Kingdom and army officers owe their loyalty to the Sovereign and no one else. Erin O’Toole also touched the sacred Cow of free Health Care, saying he would privatize part of the system while Trudeau promise to reenforce Health care and possibly provide also Pharma care. Guess what Trudeau won out, you really have to wonder sometimes about strategy and advice politicians get from spin doctors.
The other party leaders like Jagmeet Singh did not lose nor gained anything, but he could be a strong ally of the Liberals in the House with his progressive agenda. The Bloc which only represents Quebec won 29 seats and they too appear ready for now to support the Liberals, if Quebec gets some sweet reward which it is sure to get. As for the Green party they are dead in the water, their Leader lost her bid to win a seat and will probably be dumped by her party. By the way the Green party has 2 seats in the House, which does not give them any status at all.
As for the People’s Party no seats and their leader Maxime Bernier lost again and was unable to win a seat of his own. They are a fringe across the country and their message is copied word for word from speeches by Trump, I hope the Donald is getting royalties.
In PEI all 4 seats went to the Liberals and my MP Sean Casey who is a nice guy and helpful, won his fourth term.
Now Prime Minister Trudeau will have to arrange his Cabinet new portfolio to MPs probably some new faces and some old ones. He will go see the Governor General and ask permission to form a government but the test is to prove he has the confidence of the House in a vote. The vote will come after the Speech from the Throne by the Governor General announcing the new Legislative program. This will probably take place sometime after Thanksgiving in Mid-October. The House will not sit long because by 15 December they will recess for the Holidays.
It is unlikely that the new Government would not win a confidence vote after the Speech from the Throne because this would throw the country back into another Election and this would be a political disaster and no Party Leader wants that. So we most probably have another 2 to 3 years of PM Trudeau. It is also very likely that we will see changes in leadership in the parties, even Trudeau may decide that he wants to retire or he may be pushed out by his own party. For sure Erin O’Toole will face a leadership review. When this happens no election can happen so we will have stability for a while.
A foot note for my American Friends reading this, the Canadian Election cost $600 million dollars to run over 36 days, some people and some in the Media find this to be an outrage. When you think how much it cost to run an election in the USA, I think this is a bargain.