the long slide

Tags

China, G-7, Putin, Russia, Syria, Trump, USA, war

You know the expression it is a slippery slope, a few months ago I was reading a book by Austrian author, journalist, poet, historian Stefan Sweig, 1881-1942. The book was entitled The World of Yesterday, it tells the story of life in Europe prior to the First World War 1914-1918, a world ruled by Emperors, Kings and old Empires, genteel and elegant, a world vanished by 1919, replaced by a frantic and disillusioned Europe gripped by economic chaos, revolutions, violence and hate, preparing itself for an even greater disaster the rise of Fascism and the Second World War 1939-1945.

The events of the last week makes me wonder if the world has not lost it’s mind. We learned that the Great Barrier Reef off Australia is now dead, a terrible ecological disaster with grave consequences. We have been warned for decades that this was going to happen if nothing was done, well nothing was done, no one cared and here are the results.

A passenger on a flight beaten by security goons in Chicago in what I call the Airport Security Circus, an airline unable to apologize and admit its fault. Only after a Public Relation nightmare did the CEO of United finally apologize. But what does that say about the world we live in, no one is safe now, Corporations use the police to beat people with impunity. In Canada our Minister of Transport in Parliament announces new security measures at airports, when asked during Question Period what they are, he refuses to answer stating Security reasons and State Secret to justify his non answer.

In Syria more atrocities, gas used on civilian population, a clear crime against humanity. In fact the use of gas or chemicals is strictly forbidden under International Law for civilians and military. In response US President Trump bombs an empty air base, provoking a strong warning from Russia, not to cross that line again because they will retaliate against the USA. China also condemns the USA the day the Chinese President leaves Mar-a-Lago after his visit with Trump. Secretary of State Tillerson is unable to get the G-7 countries to back more sanctions against Russia despite Canada and the UK support. Tillerson uses un-diplomatic language calling the Russian incompetent in controlling their ally Syria. Tillerson is to visit Moscow on Wednesday 12 April, what will that achieve and for what purpose?

War ships are being sent to the China Sea to threaten North Korea over the ballistic Nuclear weapons dispute. South Korean government is so worried that Trump will launch a pre-emptive strike against North Korea that it has to reassure its own people that a military strike won’t happen. Trump finally tells China that if they do nothing about North Korea he will retaliate militarily, however if the Chinese cooperate they might get economic concessions, such talk angers the Chinese.  So an erratic American Foreign Policy seems  to be the way Trump wants to play this game, which is confusing to all and dangerous.

Wars are started on pretext and incidents usually after an escalation of rhetoric. Russia will not be impressed nor bullied by the USA and China can flex its own muscle to harm the economic interests of the USA.

Like many now I am worried about war and the behaviour of this President who fails to appreciate that World politics is complex and delicate. Russia may very well call Trump’s bluff and he will loose face. China has, through its official newspaper The People’s Daily already ridiculed Trump. It looks like a new Cold War but without the old reserve and careful maneuvering of the past.

Advertisements

Events in the World

Tags

Assad, Canada., Iran, Iraq, morality, Russia, Syria, Turkey, USA, war

The deadly Sarin gas attack on a town in Syria got the world’s attention with the publication by the Media of bodies of dead children frozen in a death pose. Immediately everywhere comments on how shameful it is and we must stop this war. Why is nothing being done, we will be held accountable and we should be ashamed, etc.

The use of the word ”They” comes  back a lot in comments, but who is they? Everyone wants to stop this war, but how? We must intervene, we must protest, again who is ”We”. Those making such comments are probably expressing honest feelings of disgust at such scenes. Hopefully many realize that a solution is not being pursued by the great powers, USA, Russia or China and other regional powers like Turkey and Iran are looking for political advantage. Israel is keeping quiet, this war is a good thing politically, Lebanon and Jordan are hoping not to be destabilize by the conflict on their doorstep. Iraq has its own problem trying to get rid of ISIS on its territory and is making progress at great civilian cost.

This Syrian Civil War is not about to end quickly, it has now been 6 years of indiscriminate killings, civilians are always caught in between, hostage to various armed groups. The casualties are by far civilians, war today has been escalated to levels of uncivilized barbarity seen centuries ago but thought to have disappeared with the modern age, well that was just a fiction.

To stop this war there would have to be an agreement by various rebel groups and governments to stop all fighting, ISIS would have to be neutralized and destroyed, finally the super powers, USA, Russia and China would have to agree to look for a solution which would not favour essentially their political interests. We all know that is not going to happen, this is not how powers operate today or in the past. War is about gaining an advantage on your opponents and to hell with the cost. Politicians are willing to sacrifice their own army, people, and as for the opponents or in this case the Syrians well they simply don’t count and if they have to die, well so be it, political, commercial and regional domination is far more important.

Obviously our politicians cannot speak the truth on what they want to achieve the good people they govern would not understand. So here in Canada our Prime Minister read a prepared statement in the House of Commons yesterday about the gas attack in Syria, it was rather surprising that he could not speak off the cuff clearly and express his feelings and opinion on the matter, well he had other things to think about like appearing today at the UN in New York to lobby for a Seat for Canada at the Security Council. Our Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said this attack was unacceptable and went on to speak as a mother of small children. Fine but what can Canada do in this case? We are not a super power and we are on the margins in the region, have always been. We have neither the military capacity nor is there any stomach in Canada to get more involved, the cost alone would anger many.

The situation in Syria and the region is a complex one and an old one, the root of the conflict is at least 100 years old. It all started with Britain and France plotting to destroy the Ottoman Turkish Empire that ruled the area for 500 years and turn it into a colonial outposts for their profit. In the 1930’s with the rise of Fascism in Europe and the growing power of the Soviet Union, destabilization of the area was the main game.

With the start of the Second World War, the Soviets played on the unhappiness of the population in the area under British and French Colonial rule to sow the idea of independence. The end of the war in 1945 saw a collapse of British and French Colonial power, replaced by a new super power the USA. In the 1950’s with the rise of Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt and the overthrown of the Monarchy, the Soviets gave full support to his Pan-Arab Socialist Movement, Syria was an easy target, Iraq another one where in a violent coup the Royal Family was massacre in 1958 and a group of military officer took over. The population in these countries were nothing more than pawns, serving the interests of either Soviet Russia or the USA. The whole region from Iran to Egypt and including the Levant was a big chess game between the USA and Soviets, oil played a part but many countries did not have significant oil deposit but they had strategic military importance.

Both the USA and Soviet Union encourage coups and wars in the region, often arming and paying various groups to push by proxy their agenda.

Massacres in Iraq by the late Saddam Hussein of his own countrymen with mustard or sarin gas was done in the 1990’s. In Syria Hafez Al-Assad the father of the current President Bashar, used his army to raze to the ground entire villages killing all who oppose or simply thought of opposing him in the 1980’s. His secret police and their prisons were feared by all. What we see now is just a continuation of the same.

Could politicians suggest we send our soldiers to fight on the ground there? No, in Canada our Prime Minister has been clear that he is looking for other ways to help. We are waiting 2 years after he came to power for his ideas on the matter. We withdrew our Air Force from Iraq to save money. We did take 40,000 Syrians refugees however they were selected following very specific instructions by Cabinet on who we would take mostly Christian Armenians. Though this was done with much criticism in Canada about cost. We now also have people crossing our US Southern Border into Canada to the alarm of the communities on that border.

So as long as Russia and the USA use Syria to wage war to gain influence or retain their advantage nothing will change and there will be more horrors to come. Just this week King Abdallah of Jordan and President Al Sisi of Egypt visited the White House to ensure that their insurance policy is renewed and the USA will continue to protect them with generous financial aid in the Billions of US $$$. Iraq is also looking for protection from whoever can deliver stability. Turkey’s President Erdogan is trying to give himself dictatorial powers and Russia is willing to help him, this means Turkey would leave the military alliance of NATO to forge a closer military union with Russia. This is a surprising development when one thinks of the acrimonious relationship between Turkey and Russia for the last 500 years. But when one sees an advantage, your thinking can change, the old enemy of yesterday because a good friend.

I know many have spoken of the immorality of war, however when it comes to political question, morality makes a quick exit, there is no morality nor ethical behaviour amongst countries, only the law of the mighty. He who wins not only writes history but is always right.

But people who leave comments on News chatlines should also honestly ask themselves if they really care for the population of Syria or the region in general. Do we only care because we do not like to see pictures of dead children. Are we willing to write to our politicians and say,  Yes I am willing to pay more taxes to support a program to help Syria, Iraq, the Kurds, etc. I am willing to send my kids to war to end this conflict, I am willing to take in as many refugee as possible and help them financially, to do whatever is necessary to end these atrocities.

I am willing to bet that the answer is no to all those questions, so is human nature and our politicians know it.

Oh and let’s not forget North Korea and the nuclear question, now that is another tricky question. We do live in interesting times, a curse if you ask me.

Changing Nation

Tags

abortion, Canada., immigration, mexico, Muslims, NAFTA, Ottawa, refugee, Syria, Trudeau, Trump, USA

Contrary to what is happening in the USA and all the negative news this week coming from the White House which cause many to shudder and worry about the future of our little planet now that the Doomsday clock is 2.30 minutes from Midnight, loosing 30 seconds since last Friday. The reasons being lost opportunity to tackle climate change, pollution and nuclear proliferation, President Trump simply add to the toxic mix.

Today in Canada several articles gives Canadians hope, one being that the  Government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that they will set up a special fund and work with The Netherlands to offer support and services in reproductive rights to women who may loose out because of the Trump decision to cut funding on abortion. In Canada abortion is available under our Health Care system to all women from Sea to shining Sea and this for the last 35 years, in other words that battle has been over for a long time in our Dominion. This plan would extend aid to women in third world countries.

The other news also goes a long way to show how Canadians have governed themselves very differently if compared to the USA. In 1990 the Government of Canada at the time under a Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, the author of NAFTA, decided to open the flood gates of Immigration to all. Canada has always been a country of immigration, in fact the very first government department to be created by the new Federal Government after Confederation in 1867 was the Department of Immigration. The Prime Minister at the time Sir John A. Macdonald believed that a country as vast as Canada had to increase its population which stood at a few million people. Most immigrant then came from Eastern and Southern Europe. Number of immigrants from Europe started to dwindle seriously in the 1970’s, so a solution had to be found. Today on any given year 40% of our immigrants come from the Philippine, China and India, the balance come from Africa, South America and some from Europe. Many senior Ministers in Provincial and Federal Governments are themselves immigrants, the current Minister of Immigration was a Muslim refugee from Somalia. Our Minister of National Defence is a soldier who served in Afghanistan and Sikh immigrant from the Punjab in India. Others are from Afghanistan, Iran, Chile, etc, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs etc. Quite the mix of population and the same applies to Mayors of major Canadian cities, Canadians don’t care about your background as long as you have that popular appeal. We can understand the alarm and disapproval in Canada when we see how Mexico is being treated, our NAFTA partner. Close to one million Canadians live permanently in Mexico and another million visit each Winter.

The latest statistics from the Federal Government shows that by 2036 in 19 years Canada will have a population mix of 50% brown and 50% white. One third of Canadians will have been born abroad, another 20% will have at least one parent who will be an immigrant. Every large city in Canada will have 33% of its population born abroad.

Canada is officially bilingual, French and English, however by 2036 only 18% will actually have French as a first language and around 53% will have English, the rest will have another language which is not French or English. Already it is fairly common in schools to have upwards of 40 languages being spoken by students.

Canada is losing its old-time religion. Ninety per cent of Canadians identified as Christians in 1970. Today, it’s 66%, and will be just over one 50% by 2036. Christianity is not being displaced by other religions – only 7 per cent, at most, will identify as Muslim by 2036 – but by no religion at all. A quarter of all Canadians today identify with no faith, and that number could reach 33% by 2036.  Religion simply does not play much in our Society and not at all in Politics.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau welcoming a group of Muslim women in Parliament

The fact that Canada has deliberately transformed the makeup of its population in a way no other country has managed, or even attempted, speaks to the tolerant, diverse society in which we live.

As for Canadian politicians who think they can exploit the Nativist trend like in the USA to get elected, this is very unlikely to work. There is no future courting the angry white vote in Canada. There just aren’t enough angry white voters.

Lastly on the Democracy index compiled by Economic Intelligence groups Canada ranks at #6 in the world in terms of the quality of its democracy and openness in governance. The other five countries ahead of us are the Scandinavians. The USA has dropped at #21 and is no longer considered a full democracy.

This news on the 150th Anniversary of our Confederation is great to hear and makes me happy as a Canadian. It is truly something to celebrate.

Canadians on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Canada Day!

Views on immigration

Tags

Canada., Einhorn, Immigrants, Kantor, NYT, refugees, Sponsors, Syria

The New York Times published this week, October 24 an article by JODI KANTOR and CATRIN EINHORN entitled; Refugees encounter a foreign word: Welcome!

The story is about Canadians who sponsored Syrian Refugees and the response of the Canadian Government to this refugee crisis. Canada has a very well established and old refugee program. Canada was one of the founder and proponent of the United Nation High Commissioner for Refugee, who deals with all refugee crisis around the world. Canada was also a writer of the International Convention on Refugee who regulate how internationally refugees are dealt with. In 1986 the Canadian People won the Nansen Refugee Medal awarded by the UNHCR.

Canadians in general do not see refugees as a threat to our way of life. Thousands of Canadians have in past decades sponsored tens of thousands of refugees to come to Canada to rebuild their lives. It’s a good and positive story and as Canadians we should be proud of what we have achieved.

There have been a lot of refugee crisis in the 20th Century and now in this new century. Think 1956 Hungarian crisis, 1967 Czechoslovakia, 1976 Vietnam Boat people and so on. In each case Canadians stepped up to the plate to do the need for.

The Syrian refugee crisis should be treated the same as all others. However the world view is different now. The media has fanned the flames of hate with sensational articles and politicians using populist tactics have used the lowest common denominator to create fear. The USA has so far admitted only 10,000 Syrian refugees, a very low number if compared with the past when the USA was seen as a vacuum cleaner picking up every refugee in sight.

There has been a mischaracterization of Syrians, they have been lumped into one group and labelled dangerous. The facts are very different some of them are Christians and others are Muslims, some are Arabs, some are Armenians or Circassian. For many people confusion about the entire political, social, refugee situation in the Middle East is incomprehensible.  An unfortunate word association has been created; Muslim, terrorist, Islamist, ISIS, Burka, Iran, Shia, Sunni, all those words mean nothing to most people and in the end is a source of suspicions, a sign of negativity.

Despite all this, many Canadians have stepped forward to help and sponsor Syrian refugees. Sponsoring a refugee is a process which will change your life, it is a lot more than just giving some money. A sponsor is responsible for the sponsored refugee for 12 months. This means financially responsible, you are like a new parent with a child, all their needs must be met and they must be fully supported.

The story in the New York Times gives an excellent view of what it means, it is an emotional journey but also a very rewarding one.

People who are refugees are not a threat, they represent no danger to the established order, your values or beliefs. Their need is to feel safe and rebuild their lives destroyed by war and political upheaval, situation they found themselves in through no fault of their own and are powerless to change. Only narrow minded politicians who wish to exploit unfounded fears and create hysteria for political gain wish to portray refugees as dangerous.

I have heard many say but they will impose their views on us. That is simple nonsense, Canada is a country of 36 million people of various ethnic background, faiths and culture, it is highly unlikely that 30,000 Syrian refugees mixed up in the general population would be able to change anything. Their priority is resettling. learning the language, finding jobs, learning a new way of life and sending the kids to school.

For the sponsors in Canada it has also been a steep learning curve, the Syrians they sponsored are not fitting the image they had of them before they arrived. Now they are seeing that they are human beings who are grateful for the help and anxious to get along but still have worries about their families back in camps in Lebanon or in Jordan. The Canadian sponsor have found out that Syrians have a rich ancient culture and much to share. One only wish that more Canadians who are still stuck with narrow beliefs and arrogant view points would be open to learning that there are other people in the world not as fortunate who need our help and understanding.

As for the constant terrorist threat, it has been demonstrated statistically that a Canadian has a very good chance of being run over by a car just crossing the street in any Canadian City and zero chance of ever meeting a terrorist face to face.

Let’s also not forget that the two so called terrorist incidents in Canada two years ago, were committed by White Canadians born and raised in Canada who suffered from mental illness and came from broken families. These acts where exploited by the Harper Regime at the time for cynical political purposes. It was also the Harper regime who taking their cue from the GOP strategists created the fire storm against people like the Arabs, who they viewed as a convenient easy target.

Canadians have proven that they know better and continue our tradition of welcoming refugees.

New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/22/world/americas/canada-refugees-syria.html?emc=edit_ae_20161023&nl=todaysheadlines-asia&nlid=66911170

 

 

 

This and that

Tags

Assad, carpets, Civil war, Damascus, Diana Darke, Iran, Italy, Line C Metropolitana, Line C Roma, Museums, Roma, Rome, Russia, Souk al-arwam, Syria

Have you ever noticed that if you hear Jazz on the radio the announcer always has a smoky voice. It seems that you cannot have Jazz music without that voice, it goes together and this is true of every station I have ever heard, from Radio Jordan to Catalunya Musica from Barcelona or BBC3 or Radio-Canada, etc.

I just finished reading an excellent book My house in Damascus by Diana Darke.

Diana Darke is a fluent Arabic speaker and has specialised in the Middle East for over 30 years. The owner of an old courtyard house within the walls of Old Damascus, she is well known as an authority on Syria and has written for the Sunday Times, the
Guardian, the Financial Times and the BBC. Diana Darke is the author of several guides to Syria and Eastern Turkey.

At the moment Syria is in the news everyday and Canada is taking some 25,000 refugees selected by the UNHCR, people who reside in those immense camps in Jordan. Very low risk for Canada and mostly poor people with large families who could not flee elsewhere.

Diana Darke tells the story of the house she bought in the old walled city of Damascus surrounded today by the modern city. It is an area I know well, since I went to it many times to buy my carpets from the brothers Khaled and Anas Lahham in the Souk Al-Arwam in the days under the dictator Hafez and then his son Bashar Al-Assad.

1920 photo of Souk Al-Arwam in Old Damascus. The carpet shop is or was on the left of this photo a man is standing at the entrance.

Her house was from the Ottoman Period several hundred years old and she tells the tale of her Syrian friends and how she came about to buying and renovating the house, its history, her friends and how the Civil War starting in 2011 overtook them and she had to return to Britain.

It’s a very good book and very accurate in its description of the people and their terrible situation, something very few readers will be able to grasp the full horror of a people condemn to be bystanders in their own tragedy while the political actors great and small play. I highly recommend it to anyone who wants to read about the ordinary human face of this civil war. I travelled and stayed in Syria many times during my 8 years in the region and while living in Jordan, I wish I could say I enjoyed my time in Syria but no, having to deal with the monumental stupidity, greed and sheer idiocy of the Baath Party and the government officials in Syria was enough to put anyone off the country.

As Diana Darke points out astutely the civil war in Syria could go on for many more years since Assad is unlikely to let go as long as Iran and Russia support him fully. Unless Iran is promised or given something they want from the USA and then they could switch camps and abandon Assad, but the prize will have to be fairly important for Tehran for this to happen. Then what will Russia do? As another observer pointed out, in Arab countries whenever there is a revolution it is always about political institutions there is never talk about enhancing or creating a new social framework and institutions.

Finally reading the Italian newspapers this news item, Line C of the Metro of Rome which has been under construction for 9 years and is 5 years late and 1 Billion Euros over budget has been shut down for gross mismanagement, 500 workers have been laid off, the City of Rome is 225 million Euros short and can no longer pay. The line will now end at the St-John Lateran Station only one third of it built. The two critical stations going by the Colosseum and down the avenue through the Roman Forums, the most archeologically sensitive area of the Eternal City will not be completed for the time being and the rest of the Line which was to go all the way to the Vatican and down to the Olympic Stadium may never be completed now since work has not started on that portion. The portion of Line C which opened last year only carries a third of the passengers it is meant to carry, the planning predictions were way off.

Another story which made headlines in this time of austerity in Italy with Museums forced to close or stay open only a few days a week, all have budget problems. How can this be with more and more tourists coming to Rome and flocking to the numerous museums?  All the money that is collected from ticket purchases, usually 12 Euros per ticket, only 30% actually goes to the Museums the rest or 70% of the profits go directly into the pocket of the company running the ticket app. online. Who allowed this to happen?  Another Roman story or farce.

None of this surprises me, this is the way things work or don’t in Italy. Some are saying, I am not kidding, where is Benito Mussolini to help us out of this mess, but I somehow doubt it. Even Il Duce would say that Italy was impossible to govern.

 

 

 

 

 

Iran and Saudia

Tags

Gatineau, Ici Radio-Canada, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Shia, Sunni, Syria, USA, Western Asia

Two weeks ago a poorly reported news item on the spat between Iran and Saudi Arabia on Radio-Canada Morning Show seriously ticked me off and started me on these posts about the Middle-East. The usual nonsense, the hysterical tone of Media reports, the inane comments by self-appointed experts made to reinforce our deep seated prejudice about anything in that part of the World.

Both countries Iran and Saudi Arabia broke off relations over the execution by beheading of Sheik Nimr al-Nimr who was a well known Shia Cleric in Saudi Arabia and a very vocal critic of the House of Al-Saud. The Saudi Royal Embassy in Tehran was attacked and burnt by Iranian protesters after the execution and at that point the Saudi Government decided to simply break off diplomatic relations, a very serious step. The Saudis knew that by executing Sheik Nimr al-Nimr there would be serious consequences but he was just a pawn in the long simmering dispute between these two countries.  I cannot but feel that this was a pretext the Saudis were looking for to scuttle their already tense and frosty diplomatic relations with Iran, a country they fear in the region and who could easily displace the not much liked Saudis in terms of political regional influence. The Saudis who for decades have been financing various terror and extremist group to advance their political agenda are more and more isolated and are facing questions as to their involvement with ISIS. Saudi Arabia also knows too well that if it was not for the oil reserves, no one would pay much attention to them. In fact who was paying attention prior to 1920?

By way of introduction here is some background on the area and Iran.

The balance of power was altered with the First World War, the Ottoman Turk Empire collapsed, Egypt became a British Protectorate, Persia saw its ruler the Qajar Shah fall from power in 1921 in a coup d’État and replaced by his Prime Minister Reza Pahlavi who proclaimed himself Shah (emperor). In 1941 the British turned Iran into a Protectorate with Mohammad Reza Shah as the new ruler who simply replaced his father seen as a German ally.

Iran is an important country for the following reasons, it is the second-largest country in Western Asia and the 18th-largest in the world. With 78.4 million inhabitants, Iran is the world’s 17th-most-populous country. It is the only country that has both a Caspian Sea and an Indian Ocean coastline. Iran has long been of geostrategic importance because of its central location in Eurasia and Western Asia, and its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is home to one of the world’s oldest civilizations, beginning with the formation of the Proto-Elamite and Elamite kingdoms in 3200–2800 BC.

Iran exerts considerable influence in international energy security and the world economy through its large reserves of fossil fuels, which include the largest natural gas supply in the world and the fourth-largest proven oil reserves. Iran’s rich cultural legacy is reflected in part by its 19 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, the fourth-largest number in Asia and 12th-largest in the world.

Iran is a founding member of the UN, ECO, NAM, OIC, and OPEC. A multicultural country comprising numerous ethnic and linguistic groups, most inhabitants are officially Shia, and Persian is the official language, though there are Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians living in the Republic since ancient times.

The name of the country was changed from Persia to Iran in 1935, Reza Shah Pahlavi requested from the international community to refer to his country by its native name, Iran.

I visited Iran in 2002 I was then on duty in Damascus, Syria and went to Tehran to replace a colleague. I was thrilled to visit Iran, I flew with Syrian Airways from Damascus to Tehran a 3 hour flight. Tehran is a surprising wealthy city on the foothills of the snow cap Alborz Mountains.

What I found on arrival was a sophisticated society, a cultured people and a beautiful city with great restaurants. I was largely on my own outside the Office and wandered around alone. Luckily many Iranians speak English or French so I could order food and find my way around. I also quickly noticed how Iranians were very much like Westerners in their way of thinking and so very unlike the Arabs which they do not like much, looking down at them as a little people. The difference between Damascus and Tehran and even in comparison to other cities like Amman and Cairo was startling, I could have been in a European city in Tehran. I also saw none of the negative images the media loves to present of Iran as anti-Western, dangerous and threatening, people were friendly, polite and ready to help. 

So when the Canadian news media gave out the usual poorly informed narrative on Iran and Saudi Arabia and this latest spat, I do not see it as a crisis, the two countries are not equals, I though here we go again with the usual nonsense seen from our backyard, with our pre-conceived prejudices and superiority complex.

Saudi Arabia provoked this crisis with the execution of the cleric, something they could have easily avoided but wanted to provoke Iran. All of it has to do with the crisis in Syria, Yemen, Irak where Saudi Arabia has been trying to impose itself and its Wahabite religious agenda, championing the Sunni cause against the Shia.

Our Media in Canada and in the West presents it as a Shia (Iran) against Sunni (Saudia) quarrel as if that explained it all. Saudi Arabia is very worried of the rapprochement or thawing of relations between the USA and Iran. Up until recently the Saudis had the ear of Washington and Iran was on the outs. With King Salman ben Abdelaziz of Saudi Arabia, who succeeded his half-brother in January 2015, the relationship with the USA can be described as correct but difficult, there is no great warmth or easy cooperation.

But the regional conflict in Syria and the threat of ISIS in both Irak and Syria has changed matters and a re-alignment is gradually taking place. Saudia is weary of any warming to Tehran by the West.

This week the International Sanctions in place for many years because of the Nuclear program of Iran were lifted, some 46 Billion dollars will be returned to the Central Bank of Iran, assets that belong to Iran and were frozen as part of the sanctions. Normal relations will allow more trade and more involvement by Iran with Western nations. Iran has a lot to offer and can with ease outshine Saudi Arabia, which has not much to offer outside of oil, is a closed xenophobic country, with a population living on oil welfare, poorly educated and inward looking. Many Arabs will tell you that the day oil runs out in Saudi Arabia, the Saudis will return to the desert and that will be the end of it.

Oil may not run out for another 40 years but technology is changing our lives and the World today is less dependent on oil given the new environmental awareness in governments and climate change which threatens us all. In the fight against ISIS, Iran is fully engage, we cannot say this of Saudi Arabia who is on the margins playing a dubious role with many shadowy figures.

I would not be surprised to see a dominant Iran in the region in the next 5 to 10 years, one that has replaced the old order and provided a solution to the turmoil in the area. Saudi Arabia cannot offer anything of the sort.

Iran could, per example, offer asylum to Basher Al-Assad, their political ally, this could facilitate change in Syria, though the opposition groups would have to present a more united front. Iran can with the help of Western countries crush ISIS or be instrumental. In Irak it can foster more stability if ISIS is defeated or chased out of the country. Iran also has influence with the Shia majority, there lots of new opportunities in the region and the world.

It is also important to explain the differences between Shia and Sunni Muslims are not  based on Faith or on beliefs, they believe the same thing, far more so than Christians who will fight amongst Orthodox, Catholics and Protestants on doctrine, that is not the case of Shia or Sunnis. The dispute is on who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad.

Shia Muslims believe that just as a prophet is appointed by God alone, only God has the prerogative to appoint the successor to his prophet. They believe God chose Ali to be Muhammad’s successor.

Sunni Muslims believe that the successor of the prophet can be either elected or selected by a committee from among those capable of exercising the function.

That is the difference, it is very similar to the divide between what Christians Catholics and Christian Protestants have on the authority of the Pope as supreme pontiff. The Pope is the successor of Peter say the Catholics and the Protestant reject that notion completely seeing the Pope as nothing more than the Bishop of Rome. We had our wars of religion on that basis.

Tehran in the evening with the Alborz mountains in the background.

Syria

Tags

Assad, Canada., Damascus, ignorance, Jordan, Les matins d'ici, racism, Radio Canada, refugees, Syria, UNHCR

In my life I have travelled a fair bit and I also lived in parts of the world for years that are very different from Canada. The difference are social, economic, cultural, linguistic , etc…. So I was able to observed other people and culture from a privilege perch in the diplomatic world. This gave me insight into countries and its people and why they are the way they are.

I become enormously frustrated with the silly narrative found in most media publication or on the news in general. I am also amazed at the lack of understanding the West demonstrates towards the Near-East or Levant. You would think that after centuries of inter-action we would have a better grasp but no we don’t, I speak here of our politicians and governments, I do not include the people because individuals have personal understanding shaped by their lives and experience or lack thereof. As for Asia, the Far-East, countries like China who claim super power status well they make no attempt at understanding the Near-East and do not get involved unless there is important economic, political advantage.

Umayyad Square in Central Damascus near the Canadian Embassy and the Sheraton Hotel.

Damascus had a population of 1.8 million people before 2012. 

I think what set me off the other morning was another asinine news report being discussed on Radio-Canada morning radio show called Les Matins d’ici, which always appear to strive for the lowest common denominator. The news item being discussed was the latest spat between Iran and Saudi Arabia. I just could not believe how mediocre the discussion was between the host and some reporter, neither had any understanding or knowledge of the situation. As these discussions go, the tone used is always one of feeling superior to those little people over there.

Damascus with its mix of old Ottoman Turkish buildings and modern architecture.

The great Umayyad Mosque of Damascus, once a Christian Church, a very beautiful place to visit, both Saladin and the head of John the Baptist are buried here. He is venerated by both Muslims and Christians as a Prophet.

So to return to my topic here which is Syria and the region. In 1919 at the end of the First World War, Britain and France had succeeded in destroying the Ottoman Turkish Empire and claimed the spoils of that victory by occupying what we call the Middle-East and reshaping it completely into the creation of various countries we know today. Prior to that the Ottoman Turks had simply ruled the people as one vast entity forming their Empire for the last 500 years. Around 1916 he British had made a deal with the Arab tribes and promised Cherif Hussain of Mecca, kingdoms for his sons in return for military support against the Turks.

The old Souq or Market of Damascus what a fantastic place to shop.

The tablecloths were a big item to purchase as a gift, how many of my colleagues bought dozens of them. Very fine work and really looked good on a dining room table.

So Syria, Irak, Jordan and later Lebanon were created and the story has it, over lunch when Winston Churchill who was First Sea Lord and then occupied various important Government Cabinet posts, took out his pen and drew the map of the region on the tablecloth and the new borders of the new Kingdoms. Of the three kingdoms created only Jordan remains today ruled by the Hashemite Royal family. Irak in a bloody coup killed off its Royal Family in 1958, Syria became a colonial mandate in 1924 and independent of France in 1945. Lebanon was created by secret treaty between France and England in 1926 by separating it from Syria, it was ruled as a colonial mandate until 1943. The people living in that part of the  world were never consulted, all of these arrangements were simply imposed on them.

The tea salesman, walking in the market place and you can buy a glass of tea while shopping, a century old tradition.

But my post is about Syria since the beginning of the Civil War the country I knew has been destroyed. Officially Syria had a population of 22 million people, highly urban some 57% lived in cities. Today 3 million Syrians have left into exile or have been killed.

A country of fertile plains, high mountains, and deserts, Syria is home to diverse ethnic and religious groups, including Syrian Arabs, Greeks, Armenians, Assyrians, Kurds, Circassians, Mandeans and Turks. Religious groups include Sunnis, Christians, Alawites, Druze, Mandeans, Shiites, Salafis, and Yazidis. Sunni Arabs make up the largest population group in Syria. However the dictator Bashar Al-Assad and his family are Alewite Muslims of the Shia branch of Islam.

Unfortunately for Syria, it has seen numerous military coups since independence and then Hafez Al-Assad (father of the current president) and the Baath Party took over in 1961 and have ruled it as a corporate entity belonging to the Al-Assad Family and their friends, sort of a Mafia Police State. Al-Assad (father) allowed many terror groups to establish offices in Damascus under his control. He also cleverly played the Soviets against the Americans in power politics in the region during the Cold War. Though he favoured the USSR because they gave him weapons and political support. Hafez Al-Assad ruled with an iron fist and is responsible for mass murder and other atrocities. He died still holding power in June 2000 and was succeeded unlikely by his son Bashar who lived in London UK at the time and was not destined to become the new dictator. However the Baath Party and the family needed him and he was thrust into the position of President. Many Syrians hoped he would be different from his father, but Bashar was too weak and was manipulated by various factions. Now we have this Civil War that is unlikely to end soon and again Syria is a pawn of the Super Powers Russia and the USA. Other players are Iran who support Bashar Al-Assad, he has been a good ally of Iran for many years. Saudi Arabia who would like to get rid of the regime in Syria if it could be replaced by one favouring Saudi Arabia and block the Iranian influence.

Carpet shops where I spent quite a few afternoons choosing which one I would purchase. The owners would always offer tea or a Seven-up  and sandwiches. They could sense a serious buyer.

Jordan is an ally of the USA and wishes to stay out of this conflict to protect itself from the spread of extremism. So far it has managed to remain stable with careful diplomacy and managing carefully the religious question by maintaining that everyone is Jordanian first before anything else. Irak has its own troubles and instability and the current Iraqi government favours links with Iran and has used Iranian troops to fight ISIS within its territory.

I could go on but it gets truly complicated and bizarre as international politics can be sometimes or most of the time. In the meantime the Syrian civilian population bears the brunt of the violence while the great powers play amongst themselves. I was in Damascus for the last time in February 2003 at the time Irak was on the verge of its last war with the USA which would see the fall of Saddam Hussein and his regime. The Syrians I met in Damascus then were nervous and afraid, they were ordinary people, café owners, taxi drivers, professionals, etc. who did not want a war with anyone. However the government of Syria was playing a dangerous game as tensions escalated, which was far from neutral in this situation.

What is happening in Syria was bound to happen, you do not annoy the great powers without serious consequences that is the terrible law of international politics, for too many years the Syrian Regime of Hafez Al-Assad was a thorn in the back of the USA and other Western powers. Russia used Syria to advance its own agenda in the region and Syria being on good terms with Iran and many terror groups like Hamas (Palestine) and Hezbollah (Lebanon-Iran) simply made for an unacceptable situation. With the death of Hafez Al-Assad in 2000 the USA, Britain, France and others like Canada hoped for a change in Syrian Foreign Policy more friendly towards the West. But the Middle-East is a place of long memories, resentment and rancour and many cannot forget the Western political manipulations prior to independence in 1946.

Pastry and sweets always fresh 

As for the people, the Syrians are long suffering in all of this and they are voiceless like any people living in a dictatorship, who would be foolish enough to speak up in a Police State. The small demonstration of the Arab Spring three years ago were met with police violence. More demonstrations and protests were crushed but this time Western powers were financing some groups and talking regime change. Russia seeing what had happened in Libya with Kadhafi feared the same in Syria and gave full support to Bashar Al-Assad so did Iran to block any idea of regime change, China also had a hand in this discreetly playing obstruction on the sideline. If Russia had not intervened to support Al-Assad, Russia would have lost years of careful influence and alliance building in the region. It would also have diminished its image building as a new Russia retaking the world stage it was forced to abandon in 1990 with the fall of the Soviet Union and the Iron Curtain in Europe. Russia has demonstrated it is very keen to retake its lost prestige in the international arena.

Ottoman Turkish Mansions turned into hotels or restaurants

Now the problem with the lingering Civil War in Syria is what to do with Bashar Al-Assad, he is the poisoned apple no one wants, including Russia who does not appear to control him anymore, but Russia cannot abandon him, concede defeat and give up the game to the USA and its Allies. The other crucial question is WHO would replace him and what would come after?  Better the devil you know, who is pliable than a wild card.  So the Civil War must go on until a solution is found to the Al-Assad problem, there are no easy solution.

As for the ISIS group, they could be easily crushed tomorrow, but at this time they are still useful in the game of power politics in the region. They will eventually disappear. The Powers will decide on action to be taken and wipe them out. No one likes them, including groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. ISIS has no allies and this is its greatest weakness and its eventual undoing. However at the moment they are useful in keeping the region weak on the world checkerboard.

In the meantime Syrians flee, it is estimated by the United Nations that upwards of 5000 persons per day leave Syria for Jordan, Turkey and other points. It is a very sad situation and a true humanitarian crisis. Most refugees are from big Syrian Urban Centres, many are educated, middle-class and have lost everything. They are just civilians caught in a vicious civil war, powerless to do anything that might affect the outcome.

The world media has had a field day branding them terrorists, ISIS supporters, carriers of disease, fundamentalists killers. The media has branded this an Islamic Invasion, our world is in peril, etc. In fact if you read any of the media in Europe or North America there have been very few balance reports. In Canada the former government under Stephen Harper conducted a hate campaign against Muslims in the hope of garnering votes during the Federal National Election, this played very badly for Mr Harper who lost all and ended up as a backbencher in the House of Commons. Tea Party style politics in Canada does not play out well, though Newspaper chains like the Sun and the National Post or the Globe and Mail certainly endorsed him.

The Al-Zaatari Refuge Camp in Jordan, home to 160,000 Syrians. It is the largest in the World, under the administration of the UNHCR.

The French speaking Press in Quebec is anti-Muslim and xenophobic but this has to be seen in the context of the Nationalistic Quebec Politics which has always had strong racial overtones. It is extremely sad to see such ignorance displayed openly. Another example of how we never learn from history, in 1938 when Jews wished to flee Europe it was Quebec who displayed its racist attitudes.

Canada has processed and visaed to Immigrate to this country the 10,000 promised by year end by the Trudeau government, but due to lack of flights from Jordan only 6500 have actually arrived so far in Canada.

Syrian children in the camp in Jordan.

A large portion of the  Canadian population is certainly supporting this movement of refugees and many good news stories have appeared. One from the Guardian in Charlottetown in Prince Edward Island and others in Halifax and Toronto, the Syrian families who have arrived are very happy and thankful Canada has extended a hand to help. It is our tradition for the last 130 years. What is good also is the fact that once they actually land in Canada they are automatically Permanent Resident and can simply go about their lives in a normal way.  In the end up to 50,000 will settle in Canada. They are ordinary civilian caught in a vicious civil war which displaced them and ruined their lives.

With my knowledge and experience of the region I have no doubt that the Syrians will adapt well and will make good citizens. They certainly bring with them a different culture but also one that values education, knowledge and they will melt into our society and mix with other Arab both Christian and Muslim and Middle-Eastern populations in Canada.

The fear should be from our own ignorance, lack of compassion and understanding of the other.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Relations between countries, no one is a friend.

Tags

Africa, China, Colonies, diplomacy, Foreign Relations, France, Iran, Jordan, La Sublime Porte, Lebanon, London, Paris, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Syria, Turkey

Recently the King of Saudi Arabia died and he was replaced within a few hours by Prince Salman. In the wake of his death, commentators wrote about the relationship of  the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Western World. On the chat lines many people questioned why we had relations with that country and presenting their views, mostly and largely uninformed. I do not know why politicians love to use the term our good friends in country X or the expression we are shoulder to shoulder with this country, blah blah. It is simply a false statement, a delusion, it is true that Statesman can see eye to eye on a specific point of mutual benefit and interest but that is usually limited in time and focused on a specific topic.

What most people do not seem to know or take into consideration is the fact that all relations between nations is dominated by self-interest, fierce competition, one upmanship and little else. It is true that in the last 70 years countries like Canada have enjoyed peaceful political relations with many other countries, some relations are old and well established, there are many common interest but at the same time elements that devise and irritate the other party. This is true of our relations with the USA, the UK, France, which historically have been mixed at many levels. Our first Prime Minister Sir John A. Macdonald knew this and he always kept a weary eye on both London and Washington.

Somerset House Conference 1604, Peace between Britain and Spain.

To return to the events of last week, in the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia we have to think of the geopolitics of the region and its long and old history. How the Arab Monarchies of the Arab Peninsula dislike Iran and fear its influence. Currently Iran is negotiating with the USA on nuclear matters and preventing Iran from developing Nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia is fearful of a deal or arrangement which would leave them out. Iran is a regional power and has been influential in the region for a very long time, centuries in fact. Iran supports military groups in Lebanon and Syria. It enjoyed good relations with the Assad regime, father and son. It plays a role in Iraqi politics and supports Shia politicians and their armed groups. This to the great displeasure of Saudi Arabia who is a new regional power, new in the sense of since 1973 when the oil prices jumped and created new wealth for the Saudis.

Canada has relations with Saudi Arabia, again relatively new relations, we are newcomers to this region compared to Britain. Our relationship is also very different in historical terms. We have more than 500 post-graduate students in Canada and this alone brings in millions of dollars to our Universities, cities and in taxes not counting also consumer goods they buy. This is a wealthy group of students who often drive luxury cars and live in tony neighbourhoods. Many Canadian companies do very profitable business with the Kingdom, Canadians profit economically in many various ways. Our politicians need to consider this carefully when making decisions on Foreign Policy matters.

It seems that for the average person issues like women having to wear a veil or not being able to drive or having their civic rights curtailed by tradition and culture. Every one has a horror story they read in the newspapers about Saudi Arabia. A country were the death penalty is still applied with a high number of executions per year. Such items in the news always disturbs Canadian sensibilities and that would be enough reasons to cut off diplomatic relations for most people. Luckily such decisions are not in the hands of public opinion. Breaking diplomatic relations would be very shortsighted, it would go against our self-interests.

The same reasons could apply to many countries, according to that train of thought we should simply walk away from such countries, because they are corrupt or have a justice system different from ours or their culture and history is offensive to us. Public opinion says shame them for behaving contrary to our norms and beliefs. Such reactions are emotional or based on ignorance. Diplomatic relations are far more complicated than that, because you must never forget that if you break relations with one country, it will be very difficult to re-establish them later and many years may pass before being able to negotiate a new understanding on mutual relations, concessions may be asked which may not be to our liking and then what about Consular relations and the protection of your own citizens who visit countries with whom you have no relations. Currently Canada has broken off relations with Iran and Syria. Other countries may seek to exploit the vacuum for political and commercial reasons. They will step in to take your place economically and politically, those same countries may be a NATO ally or a country with whom you have long peaceful relations. They will profit at your expense and you will lose because you want to stand on principle. Principles are fine but in the end such a narrow position would not be sustainable economically nor politically. Careful analysis must be made of every situation and disagreement before taking action you may later regret.

The ambassador of Siam at the Court of the Sun King presenting gifts.

Diplomacy and Foreign Relations is not about morals or ethics, Diplomacy is an amoral business. You have to be a hard nose realist and pragmatic in any relations you conduct, emotions and feelings have no place in Foreign Relations. Our Prime Minister likes to say that we conduct a moral or ethical Foreign Policy, that for domestic consumption is great speechifying and the common person may rejoice that our PM will tell those people what is what. Think again, it does not work that way at all and Harper found out the hard way with China. He snubbed China for three years and made hostile and intemperate statements at home to please his local base of right wingers. When he finally went to China, the Chinese made him apologise and publicly rebuked him. Harper understood that commercially the Chinese were far more important than he had ever imagined or understood.

China is pursuing an aggressive Foreign Policy, they have the population and economic might to regain the old glory of Imperial days and despite the fact that they may say that they are bridging the gap, resolving differences through mutual understanding, all that is again words for the naive. In any negotiations the Chinese are very tough and unyielding, they know their weight and know that Western consumers want cheap products, Western governments cannot refuse to satisfy the demands of shoppers back home. At the same time the Chinese understand the limits of aggressive behaviour in Asia against neighbours with whom they have irritants with Vietnam, Japan, India to name a few countries. The Chinese are also careful not to get involved in International crisis by taking sides, Crimea, Syria, North Korea, ISIS or ISIL terrorism etc.. they always say that they do not want to get involved in what they consider internal crisis. Their interest is to protect their markets and economic development. At home the Chinese Communist government can only survive if they give the population more wealth and if the country prosper.

China has routinely blocked with its Veto any economic sanction measures at the UN all the while negotiating that Veto vote with the countries most concerned by proposed sanctions. China is only doing what is good for China and its people. Though some have suggested that with its increased International profile China will have to get more involved in crisis around the world that is unlikely to happen.

European Embassy being presented to the Ottoman Sultan, La Sublime Porte

Relations between Canada and China are interesting, China sees us as a supplier of raw resources and nothing else. We do not matter much to Chinese geopolitical way of thinking. On the other hand our politicians believe that because we have a large Chinese population made up mostly by Cantonese speaking Southern Chinese (AKA Hong Kong and Guandong Province) we must matter to China, you know we had this Canadian Norman Bethune who helped Mao in the late 1930’s and we supplied wheat to China during the great famine of the late 1950’s that must mean something. Wrong, it means little though the Chinese are very clever at playing this up knowing we think it is important. When Canadian politicians travel to China be it a Provincial Premier or a Mayor of some metropolitan area, said Canadian politicians fully expect to be received at the highest level of the Chinese Government, i.e. the President or the Prime Minister of China. Wrong again, usually Provincial premiers will be lucky to meet with a member of the Politburo the Chinese judge to be of an equal level as the Canadian provincial premier. As for Canadian Mayors usually the calculation is based on the population size of the City in Canada compared to a neighbourhood in Beijing. A deputy Mayor for that area of the Chinese Capital will meet with the Canadian Mayor. Many Canadian politicians have been dismayed at the polite, courteous but junior level reception they got. So our Canadian politician must make a big deal of any trip to China and show results at home but it is usually pocket change investments for the Chinese.

The Chinese are experts at assessing the opposite side and responding at the level they judge proper in relation to their own view of the world and their place in it. Can we call China our great friend? No not at all, we have correct business like relations which are often difficult and that is it.

Another area where interest matter is commercial contracts. Trade as always been since time immemorial the driver of much of the diplomatic ties between Kings and Princes and today between States.  The power and wealth of Nations depends on trade, not just military strength. Venice is a prime example as a City State, the Hansa of Northern European Cities is another, Spain and Seville after 1492 and under Charles V was the wealthiest of Empire due to the riches from the Americas and the trade in goods that were then sold to other European States, Britain and its Empire, German industrial might and its merchant navy, etc.

Trade disputes often lead to war with devastating effect. Then you have the case of France, it had many African colonies and it decolonized in the late 1950’s early 1960’s but to this day France keeps a tight watch on so many of its former colonies for commercial reasons which favour French Companies. The diplomatic relationship in this case is incestuous, patronizing and the success or downfall of any French speaking ex colony depends very much on how much the President for Life of country X is willing to play ball with the Elysée Palace in Paris. France will not hesitate to send troops to any of its ex-colonies to protect commercial interests disregarding National Sovereignty of those countries, i.e. Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, etc.

Interestingly the Middle-East is another region where France played a role prior to the Second World War, a secret Treaty Sykes-Picot of 1916 created Lebanon to protect the Arab Christian population with allegiance to France. Was the population consulted, of course not, one could argue cynically this was done for their own good. Same for much of the Middle-East, Syria, Iraq, Jordan created by Britain out of a promise made to Sheik Hussain of Mecca with the help of T.E.Lawrence who was the British Liaison Officer in the great Arab Revolt against Ottoman rule.

France today would like to play a greater role in the Middle-East but would have to be let in by the USA. France did not participate in the Wars involving Iraq and various coalitions since the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990-1991. France was suspicious and angry that US oil companies in the event of victory and an overthrow of the Saddam Hussein Regime would lose oil contracts it had negotiated for TOTAL the French oil company. TOTAL did lose its contracts in Iraq.

Here in Canada the Harper Government has badly played its hand in its diplomatic relations with the White House and the Obama Administration. It is obvious that our Prime Minister is much more philosophically in tune with the GOP and the Tea Party in Congress and in the Senate. He does not hide his preference and that is bad politics and diplomacy. President Obama does not like him much and is tired of being hectored by the likes of the now ex-Foreign Minister John Baird, who according  to former Canadian diplomats, the worst Foreign Minister we’ve ever had in Canada. However Baird was a faithful servant of his master Stephen Harper. This in itself is the job of any diplomat to carry the message of your master no matter how distasteful it may be to you personally, you must defend the message and endorse it that is what a diplomat does. So no Canada does not have friendly relations with the USA and the USA is not our friend. We have a complex relationship based on commercial interests, supply of energy products and military dependency for our National Defence.  People can be friendly towards each other and this is very often the case but not Governments, simply because they have other objectives and interests.

King Louis XV

In closing a bit of music by Jean-Philippe Rameau composed to celebrate a diplomatic & military victory of France with the successful conclusion to the War of the Austrian Succession during the reign of Louis XV.