Memories and developments

Tags

Britain, Iran, Middle East, NATO, Politics, Russia, Syria, Trump, Turkey, World

In the last few weeks with the zigzags of international situations and the horrible nightmare circus of the Trump NO Foreign Policy, I am concerned for the safety of us all and for the stability of the World.

On my last visit to Damascus back in around 2002 just before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, I was surprise to see the large number of Iranian visitors, business people and families living in neighbourhoods of Damascus a city before the Civil War of 2 million people. The official explanation was Shia Holy Sites which brought people to visit Syria. In the Southern Suburb of Damascus is the tomb and Mosque of Sayidda Zeinab daughter of Ali and grand daughter of the Prophet Mohammed. The Mosque in Persian Style was built in the 1990’s on the site of a much older mosque. The Iranian Embassy was also the next door neighbour of the Canadian Embassy in Damascus on Fayez Mansour.

The Assad Regime in Syria is allied with Iran for various complex political and military reasons and Iran is an important supporter of Hezbollah ( the Party of God) in Lebanon and these alliances are maintained to keep a foothold in Lebanon keeping the country unstable and ensuring the on-going influence of Syria in Lebanon. Iran can also maintain pressure on Israel with the help of its proxy Hezbollah.

Since the invasion of Iraq by the USA in 2003 and the final overthrow of the Regime of Saddam Hussein, Iran has moved into Iraq on the pretext of helping the Shia majority at the expense of the Sunni minority. It also helps control politics in Iraq and prevents the USA from dominating the region and helps Russia play a large role. Something Russia has been wanting to do since the 1930’s but was unable to do because of British and American interest in the area. Britain is now gone and the USA are in a weaken position.

Enters Trump and his simpleton politics of I know it all school of thought, who decided to abandon the Kurds who counted on the USA as an ally seeking protection from Turkey, Iran and Russia. Confirming the old belief that you really cannot depend on the USA as an Ally. Russia is consolidating its position in the region, having cultivated President Erdogan of Turkey by selling him armaments despite the fact that Turkey is still a member of NATO. Russia is undermining NATO and Trump in London said that he does not feel compelled to uphold article 5 of the Alliance of mutual assistance. This sends a strong message to Russia and China who understand that they can make a move with little fear of USA intervention.

Trump then makes threats against Turkey of sanctions thinking that President Erdogan will give in, which is unlikely given his own posturing at home and new found friends in Russia and China. This point escapes Trump completely and his arrogant attitude at the NATO Anniversary in London shows how much he is out of it, we also saw how the world thinks little of him and the USA.  His leaving early in a huff or calling President Macron and Prime Minister Trudeau names like a school child did little to enhance his profile.

The Civil War in Syria will come to an end with Russia and Iran as the winners, the USA will be out and the Kurds will be reduced once again to living on the margins, because they backed the USA.

What sort of Syria will we have in the future, not a democratic one, more like an enhanced dictatorship with more grinding poverty, a powerful Russia with naval bases in the port of Latakia, something Russia has been wanting for more than a century. Iran will also get access to the Mediterranean and come to dominate the region, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. This puts even more pressure on Israel and pushes out Saudi interests in the entire region, Iran is the winner.  With Trump’s ever changing reasoning and attitudes, 60 years of complicated US diplomacy is gone. It leaves little Jordan alone with Israel to fend for themselves.

With Israel at the moment in a state of turmoil as Premier Netanyahu facing criminal prosecution for corruption, no clear winner after 2 back to back election. Trump may think he can just send in the Marines to clear things up, but it no longer works that way, this is not the 1940’s. The USA is running out of options but hey The Donald can’t seem to grasp this reality.

War with Russia is not possible, because Nuclear Weapons. A conflict with Iran is also not feasible, Russia again would certainly intervene on the side of Iran. Sanctions against Turkey will not work either and only push the Turks into the Russian camp further and undermine NATO on its Southern flank.

China has been moving for the last 20 years to displace the USA commercially in Africa, South America and Asia. China is having economic problems due to Trump’s tariffs but there is a limit to such tariffs, Stock Markets reflect the unease and worry of a trade war with China. Trump knows he is limited in what he can do without damaging the USA economy.  What has been lost in terms of  US Foreign Policy and influence in the World will not bounce back, it is simply too late.

Looks like the whole impeachment process is far to slow and uncertain and then the 2020 election another uncertainty.  No it does not look good at all.

Vacations

Tags

China, institutions, Law, Rule of Law, Russia, Trump, USA

So we are scheduled to leave for Portugal and spend about 10 days there, it will be a pleasant change all around. We have never been and I heard plenty of good things about the country.  We are also thinking of going to the Galapagos Island next year with friends, that also will be a first.

In the meantime I am worried about the USA and how your system of government is unraveling, no longer the example of democracy and in the firm grip of a President who is keen on ignoring the rules of your Constitution. The bizarre incident with the CNN reporter and his being banned because the President did not like the question. The new threats made by Trump on the new majority Democrat Congress, it will be war if they look into his finances and his family holdings. I think that he has now admitted to wrongdoing by simply making this threat, he is very obviously worried Congress will find out the truth.  This should be an incentive for Congress to act quickly. The firing of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and his replacement by his Chief of Staff who penned an opinion this past Summer calling into question the legitimacy of Courts and the Supreme Court in particular. This new fellow could also limit the Mueller investigation and even refuse to publish the findings. This new Attorney General sounds like someone who again would do just about anything to ensure Trump stays in power no matter what happens. This is worrisome for any country with institutions and the principle of Law and Order.

Too many countries like China, Russia, North Korea control the Courts to ensure that the leadership can persecute its perceived enemies and hand down judgements it likes. If the USA goes down this road then all pretence of being a democracy founded on the principle of the rule of Law is gone and you are nothing more than a tin pot republic. It could happen in the USA because no one wants to believe that it could. This is what happened in Germany in 1933 no one believed that the parliament (Reichstag) and the Courts would allow Chancellor Hitler to take over, after all Germany was a country founded on the rule of Law, and in one night it was all gone.

Hopefully President Trump can be removed from Office before it is too late. Hopefully Congress will take charge. It shows how checks and balances is a fragile thing and not fail proof.

Then there is China, in the last few months dangerous close encounters between the Chinese Navy and the USA Navy have taken place in disputed areas at sea where China now claims total control. Would Trump declare war on China if a USA Naval ship was rammed or attacked or sunk? It could very well happen if Trump becomes desperate to cling to power.

What about Trump’s promise to do away with the Nuclear Treaty with Russia, this is pure madness and even Putin is worried, all of it moves to destabilize the world and push us towards war or the destruction of institutions in the USA.  I cannot remember any President being so callous.

All the signals are there, something needs to give to avoid a disaster. Canadians are dismayed and worried.

 

terrible mistake

Tags

Canada., Helsinki, NATO, Putin, Russia, Trump, UK

The Summit in Helsinki, Finland was a great victory for President Putin of Russia. Donald Trump made several mistakes which destroyed American Foreign Policy, weakened your credibility in the world and increase the influence of Russia.

It all went to hell at the NATO summit where Trump insulted his allies and then made demands because he views himself as the ruler of the world. The contribution of the USA to NATO is 67% but all other countries also contribute annually not only in money but in equipment and personnel, often far more than the USA.  Each contribution is not a due to the USA but to the organization as a whole. No one will increase its annual contribution to 4% as demanded by Trump, not even the USA will do that, total bluster with no substance. As for the contribution of 2% it is a goal for 2021 not today.

The trip to the UK was a total disaster, PM May must have wondered why she invited Trump who insulted her publicly, called her incompetent, suggested she sue the EU to get her way, that cannot be done, simple which tribunal would have jurisdiction to hear such a lawsuit. The EU like the UN is a club and each member must live by the agreement of membership. There is no one to be sued. Trump called for PM May to be replaced by the awful populist and incompetent Boris Johnson former Foreign Secretary who by supporting Brexit with lies has done Britain a grave disservice. Trump then went so far as to threaten PM May by saying that the USA would not sign Trade deals with Britain if they did not leave the EU. You do that to an old ally? Well Trump did it to Canada.

Then the incident with HM Queen Elizabeth II, Trump was 12 minutes late, an inexcusable delay when you are a guest and you make your host wait for no apparent reason. This was a provocation engineered by Trump to show that he was the great one. Having worked on such visits myself, I know that it is impossible to be late unless it was decided to be late. Then by standing in front of HM the Queen while she was escorting him at a review of the guard, Trump knew the Protocol, it had been explained to him, but he thought he could disregard it as he had in the past by pushing and shoving other Heads of State at international meeting because he believes he is more important. This lack of common decency and courtesy is what the World sees, this is what America looks like, this goes well beyond one man, he is the President of the USA and his behaviour is beyond reprehensible.

Helsinki was a terrible mistake, by agreeing to a one on one meeting with President Putin, Trump failed to realize that the Russians recorded the meeting and will use what ever he said at that meeting in the future against him as a bargaining chip. This is the oldest trick in the book of diplomacy, you never meet one on one, you always have others with you to take notes, its diplomacy 101. Trump cannot remember what he says and blabs uncontrollably, in all likelyhood he told Putin things he heard at the NATO summit or in conversation with other allies, not understanding that Putin the old spy master made a note of it all.

Putin got an incredible gift at this meeting, after 18 years of hard work, he got the President of the USA to declare that the world would be governed by the two great powers Russia and USA. Even in 1945 the world was divided between UK, France, USA, USSR. China is surely a greater economic power than Russia whose GDP is smaller than Canada. Trump said that there could be a good dialogue and understanding like in the days of the Cold War (1946-1989). I do not remember any such cooperation during those years, it was in fact a deadly game and enormous rivalry with the USSR (Russia). In 1962 a year Trump is old enough to remember, the world stood on the brink of complete nuclear war with the Cuban missile crisis provoked by the USSR.

Trump also said that he believed Putin instead of his own Intelligence agency, this declaration is an act of treason, Trump sided with the real existential threat to the USA and the Western World, Russia. Russia is not our friend and never was, the principle of the Rule of Law, Democracy and Free Elections are foreign concept for the Russians. The unlawful occupation of Crimea, and the aggression in the Donbass and Georgia, the full military support for the Assad Regime in Syria, and meddling in other parts of the World should tell us that Trump is wrong in supporting tyrants like Putin.

Trump now has sent a clear message to the allies of the USA that America cannot be trusted. It is impossible to know if America would come to the help of fellow NATO members in case of Russian aggression in the Baltic States or elsewhere in Europe. This is very dangerous for the peace of the world.

What we see now is that the famous talked about check and balances of the American system simply do not work, you have a rogue President who is not respecting the US Constitution he swore to uphold. The USA today is on a downward slide not only in prestige but in influence around the world. China and Russia are ascending and States like North Korea are profiting from this confusing lack of direction at the White House.

Will the November Elections change anything in the USA, its a gamble but like all gamble the results may be less than satisfactory, no one should bet on how the American public will vote.

From the New York Daily News 17 July 2018.

Caro Amici

Tags

Canada., July, NAFTA, tariffs, Trade, Trump, USA, World

Today is the second day of the Dog days of Summer and it really feels like it, hot and humid with a light breeze at 28C. I am glad we live by the river and the entrance to the Sea which keeps things reasonably cool.

I am thinking of decades ago the 1960’s, 70’s, 80’s when relations with our Southern neighbour was far more friendly and casual than they are today. The world changes and if once you were on speaking terms with your neighbour well today it is a different story.  I speak here of Government to Government bilateral relations which have soured considerably over the NAFTA negotiations and tactics of the US Administration to exploit its position.

I miss the days of yore when we could travel to the USA for fun and cross the border without a fuss, a simple smile and a hello. It has become so complicated now to cross the border by car or plane that frankly why bother. You do not know what agent you will get if he will be some paranoid wrap in the flag idiot seeing enemies in every Canadian or if he will be business as usual. At any rate those guys do all they can to make you fell as un-welcomed as possible, I am sure the US tourism industry does not need that kind of help from its government.

Now that Canada has been declared an enemy country causing harm to the National Security of the USA, why should I visit or buy American products for that matter. Canadians are looking for Canadian made or made in other countries products. Here in Charlottetown where we receive a lot of American tourist, the tone is still friendly as long as no one display Trump paraphernalia or MAGA hats.

However today as I was presenting the Shame and Prejudice by Canadian Artist Kent Monkman, our new Summer exhibit at the Art Gallery, I met with several American visitors, they were passengers on the cruise ship in port and were spending the day in town.  I met quite a few very nice people who reminded me that Americans are people with whom you can have good conversations. It is the old saying; do not confuse the citizens with their government, the two are quite different. Many Americans have to live with the fact that at the moment they have a President who is embarrassing them around the world. Like all people they have to live with the government they have and with the obtuse and stupid views of so many in Congress, Senate and White House.

The policies of the Trump Administration are doing harm to the Canadian Economy, Canada being the first trading partner of the USA, our economies are closely intertwined  especially in the auto sector. Damage is also being done to the economies of other countries in Europe, in Asia and Mexico. Next week the NATO meeting will most probably not go well at all and then Trump meets Putin. The USA new friends the former Soviet Union and North Korea, we live in a very strange time.

Many in Canada now understand that it is time to abandon US markets and concentrate on the European Union and the Trans-Pacific region. Once this shift starts it will not revert and lasting damage will have been done to the US economy. Canada is also imposing strategic tariffs against goods produced in States controlled by Republicans who support Trump.

So given this grim picture, one can only hope that Americans will wake up in November and get rid of the GOP members in Congress and Senate for the sake of the USA if you do not want to become another failed State.  Maybe the 40 million Americans who did not vote in the last Presidential election will feel remorse and be running to the poles, let’s hope so.

Happy 4th of July.

Public Library in Detroit, Michigan

The future is History

Tags

Alt-Right, China, history, Masha Gessen, Putin, Russia, Trump, USA, USSR

A strange title for a book, The Future is History, remember in 1989 we were told that history had ended because the Cold War had ended and Communism was defeated. Rather naive to believe that then, it was merely a re-ordering of politics. In this book, the author attracts our attention to her thesis or her reality that Russian history today is a simple repetition of what happened in the XXth Century Soviet Union with a hiatus between 1989-1999.

This is the latest book I am reading, the author Masha Gessen, a Russian citizen, journalist and author, born in Moscow in 1967 and living now in New York City.

In The Future is History Masha Gessen follows the lives of four Russians, born as the Soviet Union crumbled, at what promised to be the dawn of democracy. Each came of age with unprecedented expectations, some as the children or grandchildren of the very architects of the new Russia, each with newfound aspirations of their own – as entrepreneurs, activists, thinkers and writers, sexual and social beings. Gessen charts their paths not only against the machinations of the regime that would seek to crush them all (censorship, intimidation, violence) but also against the war it waged on understanding itself, ensuring the unobstructed emergence of the old Soviet order in the form of today’s terrifying and seemingly unstoppable mafia state under Vladimir Putin.

She makes the distinction in her book between Authoritarianism and Totalitarianism, the two words are different in political terms.  The first is about the rule of one person through personal authority (dictatorship) but devoid of ideology, i.e. Chile under Pinochet, Spain under Franco, Greece under the Colonels, Germany under Hitler, the dictator rules using terror and violence on the masses to enforce compliance. In the case of the Nazi dictatorship, Gessen explains that Nazism was not so much an ideology it was terror used to silence anyone opposing the regime, a regime which borrowed its ideas from the writings of the dictator like the one on racial superiority but overall maintained itself in power by terror and nothing else.  Where Totalitarianism is dominated by Ideology, the Bolcheviks and Lenin used terror but justified it with the ideology of class warfare as described by Karl Marx an ideology which proclaimed world revolution by the workers against other classes. The Communist party then constantly tweaked the ideology to maintain itself in power.  Stalin and Mao proclaimed the exclusive authority of the Communist Party as the only correct ideological source for their society. Stalin then tried to impose this model on other countries after 1945 in Eastern Europe and Mao did the same in Asia in Tibet, Cambodia, Mongolia, North Korea etc. it continues today in China.  Gessen tells us in her book that since 1999 under Putin, Russia is returning to the good old ways of the Soviet Union but under a new guise. It would be too crude now to reimpose a Soviet model, so Putin instead has married the nostalgia for the Czarist regime, the Supremacy of the Orthodox Church with the Totalitarian ideal of the Soviet regime which gives stability Russians crave. Giving us a new Czar Putin who unites factions within his authority and glorifies the exceptional nature of Russia in an ideology of nationalism which echoes the old glories of Imperial Russia. What Gessen is also showing us is how Russia never was a democracy and had no democratic institutions, the Russian knew Imperial orthodoxy under an absolute ruler with the Russian Orthodox Church as co-ruler then they simply moved into a new system aping the old with the Bolchevik and then Communism.

It’s a fascinating book, a great read and explains a lot about Russia and Putin today. With the gradual withdrawal of the USA from the World stage, an inept President who is too intellectually lazy to understand how the USA is simply being eclipsed, Russia is stepping into the void like China is doing and they are not losing time.

But Gessen in her book also shows us the danger of a population who is willing to give up on a more inclusive open form of society and government for the security of stability at all cost. In a way she is saying that we in the West are also at risk. Countries like Poland and Hungary are falling back into the old ways. The rise of the Alt-Right and Christian-Conservative movements in the USA with a President who shows openly his contempt for the Constitution puts the USA on a similar path. A good read and one that makes you think about what is going on around us.

 

Climate change

Tags

Canada., Disney, immigration, PEI, Trump, US ambassador

Well we are almost at the end of October and the weather here on PEI is so warm we are busting all manner of records. Everyone is happy with the warm weather 22C today and 24C tomorrow and with the humidex around 30C. It should normally be no more than 12 to 15 C in day time. You see the problem, well most people don’t and I somewhat feel like the passengers on the Titanic, oh look more ice for the bar.

Talking of cruise ships, the Disney ship made its first inaugural visit to Charlottetown PEI yesterday. Hundreds of people lined up the shore to see it arrive at 07:30am. It is a beautiful ship and has the look of the old ocean liners. The two chimney stacks have the Mickey Mouse Logo on them. If was somewhat cloudy and foggy for the arrival but within an hour the sky cleared, blue with loads of sunshine.

It was quite the event here in town. We had some 50 + ships this past Summer but this one was special for many people.

The departure at 5pm was no less dramatic, the tradition is for the captain of the ship to blow the horn of the ship 3 times as they depart, in a way to say goodbye to the Port of call. The Disney ship horn plays If you wish upon a star, it could be heard all over the downtown area, it put a smile on the face of a lot of people.

This photo was taken as the ship exited the harbour before turning left and out unto the Strait.

Today I took the car in for servicing and had the winter tires put on, I felt silly about it, the weather being so warm. The forecast for the Maritimes is for an abnormally mild winter this year with next to no snow. In Central Canada heavier snow than normal and in the West extremely cold weather.

The new US Ambassador has arrived in Ottawa and she is a horse breeder from Kentucky, a personal friend of Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, 3 times married gold digger who gave millions to Trump and also supported Marco Rubio. Her husband is into coal, her name Kelly Craft, I am not impressed with her at all. She is only here because she gave mucho dollars to Trump. Her speech when she presented her Credentials was full of idiotic statements, i.e. I believe both side of Science in the climate change theories, for and against. or this gem, Canada is the best country in the world, strange thing to say coming from a foreign ambassador. She also believes that both sides are right on NAFTA. She did not mention lollipops and unicorns but I am sure she loves them also.

The census is also out and it shows that most immigrants to Canada come from the Philippines, India and China. They now represent 22% of the make-up of the country. It is predicted that by 2030 immigrants would represent 33% of the total population. Toronto is no longer the magnet it once was, having been replaced by cities like Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta. A reflection of simple economics and changing job markets moving West.

What is interesting is that China use to be no. 1 just a few years ago now has fallen into third place and will probably continue to fall.

PEI has had an enormous population growth due to immigration and is leading all the Maritime provinces in this field. The population of the Island in the last 3 years has gone from 145,000 to 152,000 today. Quebec attracts mostly Africans and Muslims immigrants, interesting to note that Quebec unlike all other 9 Canadian provinces, chooses its own immigrants and selects French speaking candidates. Unfortunately the general population is not very open to immigration and is very poorly informed on how the process works, failing to understand that it’s own provincial government has set up this process now since 1962.

The rest of the week looks quiet, a visit to a friend in Belle River and a lunch on Sunday.

 

 

 

 

The past week in the World

Tags

Free Trade, G7, NATO, pope, Sicily, Trump, Vatican

The German Magazine BILD quoted the German Chancellor Angela Merkel today in a Speech she gave in Bavaria at a political rally of her party CSU: We can’t rely on the US anymore. I have experienced this in the last days. We Europeans should take destiny in our own hands. ~@BILD

In the past week we have seen Donald Trump destroy 70 years of diplomatic relations and turn the USA into a laughingstock that no one can trust. He went to Saudi Arabia where he has business interests and made his speech again on terrorism thinking that the Arab leaders will fall for it. They are far more astute than he and saw right through his words. What he really wanted to do was sell weapons with no other objective in mind. Not understanding that singling out IRAN when there is already an agreement on Nuclear weapons is not wise and plays against US interests.

Then on to Israel and Palestine where under the guidance of his son-in-law Jared K. he gave full support to the right wing government of Netanyahu without a thought to the consequences. He believed he had left the Middle-East, it was not clear where he thought he was presently as if Israel was a continent. Trump wanted everyone to believe that he had the Peace solution in hand.  Again petulant and arrogant, ignorant of the issues of the region, unable to grasp the complexities. What Trump knows is what his prejudices have taught him and what he sees on television, he does not want to see further or ask questions.

Goes to see the Pope at the Vatican and the photos speak volumes, what a disaster again. The Pope gave him the document, encyclical letter Laudato Si, he wrote on the topic of care for one another, in light of the battle to repeal Obama care a rather pointed message. Visits to the Vatican are highly organized, choreograph affairs, the Holy See has 1400 years of diplomatic experience, Trump barges in as if he is at the OK Corral, his beliefs and attitude are highly insulting and in direct contradiction with social justice, human rights and the agenda of the Pontiff. Under the guidance of US diplomats Trump could have modified his message to be more appealing and avoid the worst but no, why bother, we are dealing with Archie Bunker here.

At Nato in Brussels, he lectured and insulted the other World Leaders, why? Trump like his supporters believes that the USA tells the World what to do and how high to jump. The new French President Macron said today that the handshake he gave Trump at their meeting  was tight on purpose, he does not like the man. So you can see the USA-France relationship cool and become difficult.

Trump’s attitude is that the USA saved the World and the World owes the USA everything. As one American tourist said on a trip we took on the Danube, the Germans need our money, we saved them from Hitler. Problem is Germany and the EU today are strong economies and the Second World War ended 70 years ago and the Cold War ended 28 years ago. The world has changed and Trump is unaware. To make the statement to other G7 members that he found investing in Europe difficult because the Europeans are too difficult when he is negotiating to build new golf courses, is hardly an intelligent economic argument. That Chancellor Angela Merkel has to explain to him that German car manufacturers create thousands of jobs in several plants in various US States and that Americans want to buy quality German products is not a bad thing, it is called the Free Market and Capitalism. It reminds me that the US Armed Forces have a special program to allow its personnel to buy at reduce cost tax free BMW cars. I am sure Trump still does not understand, he does not want to believe that we live in a interconnected world, there is no one way street. Europe is an important economic power of 500 million people, we are no longer in the 1950’s, John Wayne is dead.

The way he shoved his way to the front by pushing the Prime Minister of Montenegro, his refusal to walk with other leaders taking a golf cart instead, his condescending attitude and smug self satisfied smile on every picture is truly sad. His failure to re-affirm the NATO principle of mutual defence all the while demanding that countries pay up the 2% in defence spending because it is not fair to America. Excuse me but the 2% is a goal not an obligation and countries have until 2024 to reach it, so as the expression goes, Chill Donald just chill. Refusing to adhere to Principle 5 of the Alliance when the USA invoke it after September 11, again shows his complete ignorance of facts.

The last straw in Taormina, Sicily in the shadow of Mount Etna, could no one push him into the volcano and do the world a favour? Such Summits have a pre-determined agenda, Summits are highly scripted affairs and the final communiqué is always prepared in advance of the Summit. Only small changes are made before it is released at the end of the Summit. Everyone had agreed on the wording to re-affirm support for the Paris Agreement on the Environment and on other economic issues like Free Trade. Trump decides to say he will let everyone know by next week. Hello!!! Trump get with the program, this is not how Summit work. The G7 leaders said that the conversations were unsatisfactory, disappointing and no agreement was reached on anything, diplomatic speak, the translation this Summit with Trump was a total failure and he is an idiot.

It is now obvious that the USA cannot be trusted and Trump is an ignorant boor. So Angela Merkel is right in saying that the EU can no longer count or trust the USA. Canada is also now having to re-negotiate NAFTA, we cannot trust the USA, the current Administration has declared economic war on us and on Mexico. Canada and the EU must now look out for their own interests and count on ourselves and not the USA.

This last week the USA declined in the World, no longer leading, Trump is not interested in that role, going back to the isolationist policies of 1919 is pretty sad for a once such great country.

the long slide

Tags

China, G-7, Putin, Russia, Syria, Trump, USA, war

You know the expression it is a slippery slope, a few months ago I was reading a book by Austrian author, journalist, poet, historian Stefan Sweig, 1881-1942. The book was entitled The World of Yesterday, it tells the story of life in Europe prior to the First World War 1914-1918, a world ruled by Emperors, Kings and old Empires, genteel and elegant, a world vanished by 1919, replaced by a frantic and disillusioned Europe gripped by economic chaos, revolutions, violence and hate, preparing itself for an even greater disaster the rise of Fascism and the Second World War 1939-1945.

The events of the last week makes me wonder if the world has not lost it’s mind. We learned that the Great Barrier Reef off Australia is now dead, a terrible ecological disaster with grave consequences. We have been warned for decades that this was going to happen if nothing was done, well nothing was done, no one cared and here are the results.

A passenger on a flight beaten by security goons in Chicago in what I call the Airport Security Circus, an airline unable to apologize and admit its fault. Only after a Public Relation nightmare did the CEO of United finally apologize. But what does that say about the world we live in, no one is safe now, Corporations use the police to beat people with impunity. In Canada our Minister of Transport in Parliament announces new security measures at airports, when asked during Question Period what they are, he refuses to answer stating Security reasons and State Secret to justify his non answer.

In Syria more atrocities, gas used on civilian population, a clear crime against humanity. In fact the use of gas or chemicals is strictly forbidden under International Law for civilians and military. In response US President Trump bombs an empty air base, provoking a strong warning from Russia, not to cross that line again because they will retaliate against the USA. China also condemns the USA the day the Chinese President leaves Mar-a-Lago after his visit with Trump. Secretary of State Tillerson is unable to get the G-7 countries to back more sanctions against Russia despite Canada and the UK support. Tillerson uses un-diplomatic language calling the Russian incompetent in controlling their ally Syria. Tillerson is to visit Moscow on Wednesday 12 April, what will that achieve and for what purpose?

War ships are being sent to the China Sea to threaten North Korea over the ballistic Nuclear weapons dispute. South Korean government is so worried that Trump will launch a pre-emptive strike against North Korea that it has to reassure its own people that a military strike won’t happen. Trump finally tells China that if they do nothing about North Korea he will retaliate militarily, however if the Chinese cooperate they might get economic concessions, such talk angers the Chinese.  So an erratic American Foreign Policy seems  to be the way Trump wants to play this game, which is confusing to all and dangerous.

Wars are started on pretext and incidents usually after an escalation of rhetoric. Russia will not be impressed nor bullied by the USA and China can flex its own muscle to harm the economic interests of the USA.

Like many now I am worried about war and the behaviour of this President who fails to appreciate that World politics is complex and delicate. Russia may very well call Trump’s bluff and he will loose face. China has, through its official newspaper The People’s Daily already ridiculed Trump. It looks like a new Cold War but without the old reserve and careful maneuvering of the past.

Worrying times

Tags

China, doomsday, korea, North Korea, nuclear weapons, Trump, war

The Chinese curse is ”May you live in interesting times” well we are living in such times now. Turkey a NATO country has been acting with great belligerence towards Germany and The Netherlands over the refusal of both countries,  also NATO members, to allow Turkish politicians allied to President Erdogan to campaign on the up-coming referendum to give him near dictatorial powers on their national territory and speak to the ex-pat Turkish community living there. Germany has a large and well established Turkish population going back 130 years. This behaviour by President Erdogan of Turkey and his rapprochement with Putin is destabilizing NATO and is difficult to understand.

On the one hand Turkey has never had good relations with Russia in over 500 years. Continuous wars and conflict, Turkey joined NATO after the Second World War to counter Soviet influence in the Mediterranean since they control access from the Black Sea via the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. Also in this diplomatic conflict with The Netherlands, Turkey risk loosing billions of Euros in trade and tourism. There is already damage but Erdogan does not seem to care, did Russia promise investments? Most probably and China is not far behind, clever Chinese silent but deadly.

Which brings me to a far more dangerous and deadly possible conflict, that involving North Korea and the USA. In the Nuclear age a doctrine was established that no country would ever be allowed to develop ballistic Nuclear weapons to be used against the USA and its allies, but more importantly against a direct attack against the continental USA, this includes Canada since the USA is directly responsible for our Nuclear defence in case of attack.

The Trump administration has made it clear this week that it is not interested in continuing negotiations with the North about its developing nuclear missile facilities. For many years the USA have negotiated with the North Korean leadership and provided a sweetener in the form of aid. China who is the nominal protector of the North Korean Regime since the truce* in the Korean War in 1952 has also used leverage with the Kim family, it is not working anymore and China is frustrated. North Korea has been developing ever more sophisticated nuclear weapons and now are about 3 years away from having Inter-Continental Ballistic missiles capable of reaching the Western Coast of the USA. This means that the US Government and the President must stop North Korea before it is too late, the afore mentioned doctrine dictates it. Such North Korean missiles could easily be fired and reach the USA in 20 minutes, not enough time to properly respond in kind and this is why a sophisticated computer program monitors 24/7 the world in case of such an attack, which could come from Russia or China but it highly unlikely for a host of reasons including leadership ones who understand all too well what it means in terms of survival for us all. The computer system detecting such an attack can automatically launch missiles in case the White House does not respond quickly enough.

This week Secretary of State Rex Tyllerson was in South Korea and is then going to visit Japan and China. He has made it clear that the USA is considering a pre-emptive strike against North Korea if there is any further escalation or un-acceptable behaviour, what does that mean exactly is anyone’s guess. But the visit itself to China is to warn the Chinese President and leadership that President Trump is going to act differently from the past and a strike could come at any time, maybe even a nuclear one.

Trump is clearly after regime change in North Korea, the Kim family have for far too long teased the USA and made threats, testing missiles by launching them repeatedly to show they are capable of attack.

Rex Tyllerson is going to tell the Chinese that the time for discussion is over and if they do not act to change the leadership in North Korea, which they can easily do, given their enormous influence, the USA will strike. The big problem is that Nuclear weapons today are one thousand time more powerful than the one used in Hiroshima and then Nagasaki in August 1945. No one has seen the power of today’s weapons and it is truly terrifying. What would be the reaction of Russia in such a case, probably annoyance but not much more as long as their territory is not affected by the fall-out, though they border North Korea. What about China, major cities like DanDong across the Yalu river from North Korean, sharing 1000 Km border and they could suffer from the fall-out with all the horrors it entails. South Korea would certainly by affected given how close the Capital Seoul is to the North, only 22 minutes by air separate the two capitals or 121 miles.

Given that Mr Trump does not appreciate the power of Nuclear weapons nor the complicated balance between States and other great powers, such a pre-emptive strike could easily lead to a major catastrophe or doomsday for life on this planet. Most people do not want to believe this possible, but the unpredictability of Trump makes this quite possible.  At the same time Kim Jong Un is equally responsible for this state of affair and he is not without knowing that a direct nuclear threat to the USA invites automatically a terrible response.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What a week

Tags

blood, Canada., intolerance, massacre, Muslims, PQ, Quebec, Separatist, Trump, violence

Lots of emotions this week which leaves me somewhat exhausted. Though I live in Canada the circus at the White House and the dangerous buffoonery, the constant stream of bluster politics is dragging the USA down into a level that is very difficult to understand. This is somewhat like an early dusk as day light slowly vanishes, it is very sad to watch. It also makes me fearful for what is coming.

Then this week we had an attack on the Grand Mosque of Quebec City, six men shot dead while at prayer and 19 others badly injured. The terrorist was a White young man, Roman Catholic, raised in an upper middle class family, well educated, still attending University. Again we saw the fake news phenomenon claiming early on that a second gunman, a Moroccan was also involved, FOX News reported this ad nauseam until the Prime Minister’s Office got involved and told them to remove the tweet in question since it was false, they did finally. This did not prevent alt-right groups in Canada to spread more false news and conspiracy theories to slander the dead and other muslims in Quebec City. The next day another mosque this time in Montreal was attacked and vandalized. The police have reported that more anti-muslim attack have taken place in Quebec.

The leader of the separatist Parti Quebecois, Jean-François Lisée nonetheless continued when interviewed by journalists with his Ethnic Identity speech and could not see how this type of speech could lead to actions by individuals like Alexandre Bisonnette. We have had decades in Quebec of such speeches by so called Nationalists. The day of the massacre Monsieur Lisée continued with a declaration on Economic Nationalism in Quebec clearly stating that those Foreigners who come to Quebec come here to take our money and this does not profit Quebec, that is no longer acceptable. The Parti Quebecois has a way of always positioning itself as they did in the past with their Quebec Values debate as a Us against them the foreigners. It is a seductive speech for many and the Alt-right groups and what is called the Radio poubelle (garbage radio) shows constantly attack anyone who appears different, Muslims have been a special target and constantly vilified. This is a disease in Quebec and it is very troubling how diversity has been rejected by many and cannot be accepted because of the threat it represents to those so called mythical Quebec values and the survival of the French fact, which is not in danger except in the minds of the Quebec Alt-right groups.

On the day of the funeral it was revealed that the Muslim community in the City of Quebec did not have its own cemetery, discussions for the establishment of such a place have been dragging on for 10 years, politicians were afraid to offend again the Nationalist groups. Now the Mayor of Quebec Regis Labaume who has been visibly shaken by the events of this week promised that a Cemetery for the Muslim community will be established soon.

I heard all the political speeches at the funeral of the 6 men and I thought that there was some grand standing but all the calls for tolerance, acceptance and respectful  co-existence will probably fall on deaf ears, you cannot change the hateful attitudes of the Nationalists in Quebec who are convinced of being a superior race.

Changing attitudes is according to psychologists one of the hardest thing to do for humans. Here we have ignorance fuelling prejudice which are deeply seated. I saw it in Gatineau which is across the river from Ottawa against the African community. Some in the White, French speaking town did not like the fact that these French speaking Africans were better educated and held it against them. There is wide spread and systemic discrimination in Quebec against the non-white non-Christian segment of the population in the Province. The current Provincial government has not been very forceful in moving against Alt-right groups or Radio stations in Quebec City whose well known and popular hosts have broadcasted hate speech often singling out Muslims or other minority groups.  This is turn has led to a view that it is normal and acceptable to have racist opinions because it is only your opinion.

You can read the comments on chat lines or in newspaper, to say that they are vile is putting it mildly. In Quebec, Donald Trump has lots of fans cheering for him, the hate of the other is that well anchored. That is not to say that other provinces in Canada are immune from hate, in other regions opinions run against Asians, Native groups, Blacks, Jews and Muslims and immigration in general. Our Conservative Party politicians like Kellie Leitch and her Canadian values speech, it’s not racist she insist or Kevin O’Leary who thought it was funny to show himself on YouTube shooting several high powered fire arms hours after the Quebec city massacre or other conservative leadership candidates trying to imitate Trump with pronouncements, fear sells by time. These people have aspirations to one day lead the country.

What I would like to know is how do you change attitudes, open minds, educate people. Is that possible at all when so many have closed minds and refuse to listen. They may be a minority group on the margin of society, they may be 1 in 10 but still they poison the social discourse with their nonsense and it leads like in this case to murder of innocent people whose only crime was to look different.

photo of the funeral for the victims, a very large crowd came to pay respect and the political leadership was also present to honour the dead.   

   

Saturday 4 February 2017, 1000 + march against Islamophobia in downtown Charlottetown. People do care about their neighbours safety and well being. Good for you PEI!